TEAMS

Baltimore Orioles: Picked by most, including me, to finish last in the AL East, the Orioles have the best record in the league as of Tuesday. Offensively, they are about what I expected outside of Adam Jones’ incredibly hot start (14 homers already), although I was shocked to find that they lead ALL OF BASEBALL in home runs with 65! – but the pitching has been the difference. After finishing dead last in all of MLB with a 4.89 ERA in 2011, the O’s have a 3.58 ERA thus far. The bullpen has carried the team, as they have five relievers with ERA’s under 2.00. I don’t see their run as sustainable, however, because the starting pitching has not been great – the three worst ERA’s on the team belong to starters, and eventually the bullpen will crack under the strain. The offense will be decent (although they won’t come close to leading the league in homers) and the O’s might well make a run at .500, but eventually they will fall back to earth, especially in baseball’s toughest division. 90+ wins chance: 10%.

LA Dodgers: Another team I picked to struggle mightily, the Dodgers have the best record in all of MLB, and the fact that they have outscored opponents by 50 runs already is even more impressive. The good pitching could have been predicted – after all, LA finished fifth in ERA last year, and Dodger Stadium has long been a pitcher’s paradise – but the offense has been a HUGE surprise. Matt Kemp was far and away the league’s best hitter before he got hurt, but AJ Ellis and Andre Ethier have also hit exceptionally well – and while the rest of the lineup lacks power, they are getting on base at an exceptional rate (.340 as a team, third in MLB).

The Dodgers have two decided advantages over the Orioles – their division is MUCH weaker, and their pitching is far more likely to stay strong. No other team in the NL West has outscored their opponents, and the teams I thought would contend, Colorado and Arizona, have each been outscored by 20+ runs and have had huge pitching issues. The Dodgers’ offense will cool off – fundamentally, it’s much the same group as last season, and the longer Kemp is out the less likely they can sustain this – but Lilly and especially Kershaw are stud starters, and Kelly Jansen appears to be the next great closer in the league. They won’t win 70% of their games, but with Arizona already 10.5 games behind, the Dodgers are clearly in the catbird seat out west. 90+ wins chance: 80%

St. Louis Cardinals: Their record (23-19) isn’t that impressive, but they’ve outscored their opponents by 58 runs, tops in the NL, and they lead the league in runs – and all that with Pujols gone, Carpenter injured, and Wainwright largely ineffective. On the pitching side, Lance Lynn has been their best starter and his peripheral numbers suggest that he may be for-real. Jake Westbrook has also pitched well, but look for him to regress as the year goes on. The Cards’ staff gives up their share of hits, but they simply avoid the free pass (only the Phillies have walked fewer batters) and they have a good defense to back them up. I think overall the pitching will decline a little as the year goes on, but it won’t collapse as long as Lynn retains his effectiveness.

The offense is another story – Rafael Furcal and Jon Jay aren’t going to hit close to .340 over a full season, Carlos Beltran isn’t going to slug .600, and their team on-base% of .344 and slugging % of .457 are not sustainable, especially with the serious injury to Lance Berkman. What those players have done through two months is very impressive, but I strongly believe a major regression is coming for this team’s offense. On the other hand, this is a mediocre division at best, and 85 wins might well be enough this year – if the offense stays above-average, and Wainwright finds his ace form, this team could capture the Central, albeit with 85-88 wins. I just don’t see the pieces here of a 90-win team, but time will tell. 90+ wins chance: 15%.

Cleveland Indians: I predicted that the AL Central was the most predictable division in the preseason, figuring that the Tigers would run away with it. We’ll get to Detroit’s struggles soon, but the Indians have exceeded expectations thus far. Cleveland has a better record than the Cardinals at 23-18, despite being outscored by six runs on the season. That’s a clue that they are playing ‘above their heads’ and will likely backslide soon. Offensively they have a solid core of good-not-great players in Jason Kipnis, Santana, and Cabrera – this will never be a GREAT offense, but it is unlikely to be a below-average attack either (much like last season, when the Indians finished ninth in the AL in runs). One would then think that the pitching is much-improved, but their team ERA is just over 4, good enough for 20th in MLB – last season it was 4.2 and ranked 23rd. Derek Lowe has carried the staff so far, and he’s not going to finish with an ERA below 4, much less the 2.15 he currently has.  In short, I don’t see a recipe for success here, they are a big bat and an ace pitcher short of true contention. 90+ wins chance: 5%.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

The eight best offenses in the NHL this season were, in order: Pittsburgh, Boston, Philadelphia, Ottawa, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, and Nashville. Included in there are your last four Stanley Cup-winning teams, as well as the runner-up team from each of those seasons as well. (Detroit faced Pittsburgh in ’08 and ’09, each winning once; Chicago bested Philly in ’10, and Boston defeated Vancouver in ’11). This group represents the cream of the crop in the NHL, the most marketable teams, the biggest stars, and the teams generally considered favorites to win the 2012 Stanley Cup. NONE of them are still playing.

The top eight defensive teams in the NHL, again in order: St. Louis, Los Angeles, NY Rangers, Vancouver, Boston, Detroit, Phoenix, and New Jersey. All four teams remaining can be found on this list, and all share a common theme: defense before offense. Your Vegas Cup favorites are the LA Kings, a team that barely scored two goals per game during the regular season. Vegas’ next choice is New York, a team that celebrates blocked shots as much as goals scored, and whose coach treats press conferences with utter contempt.

Look, I understand that playoff hockey is a tighter, more intense game, and I not only accept that, I embrace it – the NHL’s postseason is a two month grind of intensity, passion, sweat, and pain unrivalled anywhere else in sports. However, it feels to me more and more like offense simply doesn’t matter anymore in the NHL. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Pens-Flyers series got the highest first-round ratings in fourteen years. Offense should be something sustainable, something you can count on to build momentum, not something that simply results from solid defense. There HAS to be balance in the game.

What do fans want? Oh, sure, the diehards (myself included) appreciate the pitchers’ duel in baseball, the 10-7 test of wills in football, the 2-1 defensive struggle in hockey – but the average, ‘casual’ fan loves the 3-run homer, the 80-yard TD pass – and the breakaway goal in hockey. Baseball became too pitcher-dominated in the 1960’s – the league responded by lowering the mound and shrinking the strike zone, and aside from the steroid era the game has been pretty ‘in balance’ ever since. The NFL radically altered the rules in the late 1970’s regarding jamming and holding receivers, and offense instantly went up. Hockey was all ‘clutch and grab’ in the 90’s, and after the 2004 lockout they strictly enforced the rules to improve the ‘flow’ of the game. In EVERY CASE I mentioned, those changes increased the popularity of the sport.

The NHL faces a crossroads moment here – coaches love control, and defense is far easier to control than offense. Now that defensive hockey is proving to be a winning formula – we’re guaranteed to have an anemic offense win the Cup this year – the league will rush to mimic these tactics. Coaches won’t voluntarily change the game, the league will have to take action, and do it swiftly. Here are some of the ideas I have for bringing offense back, from the simplest, least-intrusive to the most radical:

-Enforce the rules. I’m not going to spend much time on this – I’ve been critical of the league since January for inconsistent enforcement of the rules, and given how well they enforced things from 2005-2011 I know it’s possible. Take away the subtle holds, trips, and interference and watch the skill come back into the game.

-Reduce the size of goalie equipment. This has been brought up before – if you look at a goalie from 1990 compared to now, the pads are MUCH bigger and a 170-pound goalie can appear as big as a 250-pound man with all that stuff on. Goalies play a much more aggressive style now than they did then, and defensemen are far faster and more agile – giving shooters more room to target around goalies makes sense, and will force goalies to have to make hard choices when facing a 2-on-1, for example.

-Legislate against blocked shots. This one is tricky, because I respect and admire anyone who willingly lays down to block a 100-MPH slap shot – but fans don’t want to see blocks, they want to see goals or great goalie saves! Sooner or later a player is going to lay down to block a shot and get seriously injured when they get hit in the face. Perhaps the answer can be found in basketball – near the basket, there’s an area where a charge will not be called. Perhaps if a defender is close to his own goal, it could be made illegal to intentionally leave his feet to block a shot. I don’t have any solid ideas here, but it’s worth discussion.

-Widen the net.  By far the easiest and most controversial idea. To me, the goalies are bigger and their equipment bigger still – why not simply enlarge the shooting area? The counterargument basically comes down to various iterations of ‘we’ve always done it this way’, citing the integrity of the game, history, etc. My answer: At one time the forward pass was illegal in football AND hockey, baseball’s playing surface varies by city (AND they’ve changed the mound, the ball, and the strike zone throughout the last 100 years), and the NBA introduced the 3-point line less than 30 years ago. Change is hard, but change can keep the game balanced as well.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the NHL reacts to this trend – and maybe I’m wrong, maybe this is a 1-year aberration and having a strong offense will pay off next season. Time will tell.

Next week, we’ll begin to look at baseball as the season passes the quarter-pole.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

-The Steelers had what appears at first glance to be a very fine draft. G David DeCastro should make a huge impact as a rookie – he’s been compared favorably to Alan Faneca – but the key pick in this draft will be their second-rounder, tackle Mike Adams. No one questions the talent, but he dropped into the second round due to a positive marijuana test. The Steelers believe that was a fluke – Adams reportedly drove down to apologize to the Steelers personally – and if they are correct, the offensive line could go from a relative weakness to a strength immediately.

-There are two keys to successful drafting in my opinion – nailing first-round picks, of course (early busts can cripple a team), but just as important is hitting the occasional late-round steal. Look around the NHL, NFL and MLB and you will see many players taken late who became stars. In the NFL Hines Ward, Jared Allen, Arian Foster, and Tom Brady stand out as recent examples. Pittsburgh’s draft will get an ‘A’ grade if Adams and DeCastro live up to their billing – but if they’ve found even one additional starter with their other seven picks, this could be an exceptional draft.

-In Philly, the Eagles correctly prioritized upgrading their front seven on defense – they held three picks in the top 59, and they acquired two defensive linemen and an inside linebacker. Fletcher Cox should become the disruptive force the Eagles love to have on the interior d-line, and Mychael Kendricks might be able to step in right away at ILB. Andy Reid took Arizona QB Nick Foles in the third round, and he becomes the heir apparent to Michael Vick down the road.

-Elsewhere in the NFL: I hope Andrew Luck can take a beating, because he’s in for a very long season in Indy. Keep in mind that Peyton Manning also endured a very rough rookie season, so try to withhold judgment until the front office puts more talent around him…Robert Griffin better be the second coming of Joe Montana or Dan Marino considering the price Washington paid to get him. St. Louis made a GREAT deal there, the kind of deal that can re-energize a franchise for years if they capitalize on the acquired picks…Cleveland taking a running back and a 28-year-old rookie QB really surprised me, apparently they think they are very close to competing – I think both picks were questionable at best.

-Moving on to the NHL (and please note, I’m typing this Tuesday night): I said before the playoffs started that I thought Washington would have beaten the Rangers had they met in Round 1, and nothing I saw in that round changed my mind – the Rangers struggled mightily with the plucky Senators, while the Caps knocked off the defending champs with some fantastic defense and goaltending. I expect Caps’ rookie goalie Braden Holtby to give up a few more goals than he did against Boston, but I also expect Alex Ovechkin to get hot and carry the Caps for a couple of games.

-New Jersey is an ideal matchup for the Flyers – they are not nearly as physical or skilled as Pittsburgh, they get no scoring from their defense and not much from their bottom-six forwards, and Martin Brodeur is simply not the goalie he was even four years ago. The Flyers’ weaknesses in goal and in their own end are unlikely to be consistently exploited by the Devils – Philly is too inconsistent to sweep the Devils, but a Flyers win in five or six games seems almost inevitable. In fact, while I know ANYTHING is possible in the NHL playoffs, with the Bruins, Penguins, Canucks, and Red Wings gone the Flyers have to be considered prohibitive favorites to win the Cup at this point.

-Out west, I expected the Blues-Kings series to be a low-scoring affair…apparently the Kings didn’t get the memo, as they have torched the stingy Blues for eight goals on the road, taking a commanding 2-0 series lead. With the Blues’ best goalie, Jaroslav Halak, out for the rest of the series I expect the Kings to close St. Louis out in six games or less.

-Wednesday’s Phoenix-Nashville game will, in my opinion, decide that series – obviously if the Coyotes go up 3-0 the series is over, and even though the game is in Nashville I think Phoenix has a large advantage since Radulov and Kostitsyn have been suspended by Nashville. Neither team has played the kind of smart, defensive hockey they were known for all season, but if Nashville can grind out a win in Game 3, I expect this to be a long series, most likely going seven games.

I’ll be on vacation next week, but in two weeks we will preview the NHL conference finals – and a review of baseball’s first 6-8 weeks is coming soon as well!

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

-I wrote most of what I wanted to say about the Penguins’ collapse last week – it all still holds, the offseason emphasis HAS to be on upgrading defensively. They can remain an explosive team while playing solid defense – scary to think that they averaged over four goals per game and STILL lost in six games. The offense is there, no need to blow up the core, and no reason to panic – but adjustments to the roster are definitely in order.

-Every April I am forced to re-learn a lesson I seem to forget every March – NHL playoff seedings are MEANINGLESS. As of Tuesday the top seed in the West is out, the top two seeds in the East are facing Game Sevens, while Florida is leading their series, they went into the series as an underdog to #6 seed New Jersey. The bottom line: make the playoffs, and literally ANYTHING is possible – the regular season isn’t quite meaningless, but it certainly doesn’t have a lot of predictive power in this sport.

-Last note on the NHL – the Flyers are my favorite now to come out of the East, and if the Rangers and Bruins both drop their Game Sevens, Philly becomes a prohibitive favorite. New York is ‘kryptonite’ to the Flyers, but every other team will have problems matching the Flyers’ scoring depth. As long as Bryzgalov doesn’t implode in goal, the Flyers have a chance to play in June.

-On to baseball – I’ll have a first-quarter review coming in a few weeks, but early on my Pirate and Phillie predictions look spot-on…both teams have pitched very well, and much of that has been wasted because both offenses are inept. Pittsburgh has allowed only 44 runs, the fewest in ALL OF BASEBALL – yet they are only 6-9, because they have scored 30 runs in 15 games! They are 18 runs behind the next offense, and while they will eventually hit better than this – it’s just about impossible to hit worse – they have a chance to be the worst offense in baseball this year. The pitching will eventually crack, the bats HAVE to pick up some of the slack.

Philly hasn’t fared much better – they are next-to-last in offense with 48 runs scored, and the injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley indicate this team will struggle for runs much of the season. Cliff Lee has hit the DL, which will put even more pressure on Halladay and Hamels to carry this team through the next two months. I strongly believe Philly’s stranglehold on the NL East ends this season.

-In the AL, there’s still a lot to sort out…but Boston has allowed 100 runs in only 15 games! They still have a fantastic offense, but if they cannot get their pitching sorted out they could well be looking at a losing season in Beantown.

-In the world of golf, the Masters was amazing for two reasons: Bubba Watson and Tiger Woods. Watson pulled off an incredible comeback, capped by the best pressure shot I’ve ever seen – the 150-yard wedge from the forest. His self-taught swing and good-guy reputation stand in stark contrast these days to Woods, who may be reclaiming his game but certainly not any semblance of decorum or common sense. I’ve long admired Tiger’s game and find golf to be must-see TV when he’s contending, but more and more I’m put off by his arrogance and his temper tantrums. Spitting on the course or slamming a club is bad enough, but to actually drop-kick a club after a bad shot – on national TV, at the biggest tournament in the world? Ridiculous. And his pseudo-apology afterward was even worse in my mind. It’s becoming clear that Tiger has been so isolated from reality now that he simply doesn’t care what people think, he will do what he wants to do and consequences be damned. This attitude has cost him his marriage, at least two coaches, a trusted caddie, and TONS of goodwill. I’ll still watch because I admire the talent – but I cannot honestly say I’m still rooting for him.

Finally, the NFL Draft – I’m not Mel Kiper and I am not going to analyze every team’s needs, but I will take a look at what the Steelers need – they need linemen, linebackers, and a running back. They have addressed the defensive line the past two drafts, but they need to pick up at least one more piece – a massive nose tackle to eventually replace Casey Hampton. No need to reach in the first round if there’s no fit, but this year or next this need must be dealt with.

On the O-line, they desperately need a guard and adding another tackle seems prudent – last season they ignored veteran Max Starks until they were out of options, and clearly that didn’t work out for the team very well. Injuries are a given on the line, and the Steelers have done a poor job building depth at the position. Running back isn’t a pressing need, but with Rashard Mendenhall out they could use a good change-of-pace back. Taking a RB in the top two rounds seems like a poor use of the pick given how many successful backs have been drafted late or gone undrafted (Willie Parker and Arian Foster are prominent examples).

The biggest need, however, is at inside linebacker, with the release of James Farrior. I think the conventional wisdom is the correct wisdom in this case – most draftniks have the Steelers taking Alabama’s Don’t’a Hightower, and I think he would be an excellent selection and solidify the Steeler LB corps for years to come. If Hightower is still there when the Steelers pick, they would be wise to take him. They can then look to their lines and their backfield in the later rounds.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

NO ONE saw this coming – down 3-0 to the Flyers is bad enough, but to allow 20 goals in those games, blow leads in each game, and generally look clueless is an embarrassment to not only the players, but to the organization as a whole – particularly given the thuggish behavior on display Sunday afternoon. Brooks Orpik said after Games Two and Three that there is ‘no finger pointing’ in the locker room, and if so, that’s good – they need to stick together – but in my opinion, these are some of the biggest culprits:

Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek – These two defensemen were signed two summers ago to stabilize the defense and provide a ‘shutdown pairing’. It worked great in 2011, but both have been out of sorts for most of the 11-12 season and both have COMPLETELY collapsed in these playoffs. Michalek has shown signs of life at times, but Martin has been absolutely clueless – he’s been soft, he’s made bad decisions with the puck, and frankly I’ve seen him standing around away from the play while Fleury has been under siege. I know all about the perils of ‘selling low’, but I don’t see how this team can go forward with Martin next season given how terrible he has been – and given the depth on defense at the minor-league level. Michalek probably deserves another chance, as he was hurt to start the season and never seemed to get going.

Evgeni Malkin – I’m a HUGE Malkin fan, but you cannot claim to be MVP-caliber then get dominated by a 19-yr-old checking center for three games. Frankly, Malkin looks frustrated and perhaps a bit tired – he’s carried a HUGE load for this team and compared to many of the Flyers (and to Crosby, who has looked very good), Malkin has looked slow.

Marc-Andre Fleury – Most of the goals have NOT been his fault – he’s been hung out to dry more than spring laundry this series – but he’s also failed to make the big save at the big moment. Take Game Three for example – Pens got off to their usual early lead, then Fleury knocked an incredibly weak shot into his own net – while shorthanded, no less! It KILLED any Pens momentum and the Flyers never looked back. You can count on one hand the times Fleury looked soft in the regular season – but he’s looked plenty shaky at times in this series.

Dan Bylsma – I agree with those who say that in the end the players are responsible for being ‘ready to play’, but if we are going to credit Bylsma for helping the team win the 2009 Cup (I do) and the incredible 2011 and 2012 regular seasons (I do), then does he not deserve a fair amount of criticism for SIX straight playoff losses going back to last season? In addition, whether he ordered any of it or not, he clearly didn’t take aggressive steps to curtail the clownish behavior of his team in Game Three, and he got fined $10,000 for his part in all that nonsense. Bylsma has always talked about the Pens ‘playing their game’ – up-tempo, aggressive offense, but within a very defined defensive structure. That structure has COMPLETELY collapsed during this series, and he has to be held accountable for that. Clearly he’s not going to be fired, nor should he, but in my opinion the ‘honeymoon’ is over after three straight years of playoff failure – and yes, I’m saying the Pens are done, no way they can win four in a row over this team with their defense playing this poorly.

As for the rest of the league, there’s been an overriding theme – less penalties called, and a LOT more nastiness. I’m SO sick of the phrase ‘let the players decide it’ – that’s code for ‘let the players cheat as much as they can get away with’. If you aren’t going to enforce the rulebook, why have it? If tripping the puck carrier is no longer something that gets called every single time (and I’ve seen it go uncalled at least four times this week around the league), then where does it end? When penalties are uncalled for two games of a series and suddenly called in the third game, how are players supposed to know where the line is drawn? The NHL made a serious commitment to calling a ’clean’ game after the lockout – taking away the obstruction, hooking, and other ‘lazy’ penalties, and the game was far better for it. I saw somewhat of a backslide last season, but the second half of this season has seen a steady decline in penalties called AND level of play – which has culminated with the craziness of the past weekend. I implore the NHL – if you want to allow hooking and obstruction, then at least remove it from the rules as a penalty – otherwise, let’s call penalties at ALL times, not just when the refs feel like it, ok?

On a similar note, for YEARS I’ve heard how fighting ‘protects’ players because they can ‘police’ themselves and players who would otherwise take brazen cheap shots live in ‘fear of retaliation’. Watch a replay of Shea Weber slamming Henrik Zetterberg into the glass – watch Arron Asham cross-check Braydon Schenn in the face, or James Neal run around hitting anything in orange, with or without the puck – in general, watch the last two games of this Pens-Flyers series, and all the mayhem they’ve brought forth – and then explain to me how the continued presence of fighting has helped police this game. That argument is FALSE and only used as a crutch to keep pugilism alive in the sport – the truth is, REFS control the game and the level of violence by how tightly they call games, and the NHL needs to empower the refs to do their jobs – and be far more consistent and stern in punishing wanton acts of violence.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 NY Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa

Offense – New York scored 226 goals and converted 15.7% on the power play, while Ottawa scored 249 goals and were at 18.2% with the man advantage. Offense has been the only question mark for the Rangers in an otherwise stellar season – Gaborik has been great, and Richards and Callahan also had fine seasons, but after that there were no 20-goal scorers or consistent offensive threats. New York will need to find some secondary scoring to go deep in the playoffs. Ottawa has been an offensive powerhouse all season, finishing fourth in the league in scoring. The resurgence of Milan Michalek and the emergence of defenseman Erik Karlsson as a top scoring threat proved to be the perfect complements to the team’s main stars, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson.  The acquisition of Kyle Turris was also a big help. Overall, while the Rangers have a star in Gaborik, there’s no question that Ottawa has the better offense. ADVANTAGE: SENATORS

Defense – New York allowed 187 goals and had the NHL’s fifth best penalty kill at 86.2%, while Ottawa allowed 240 goals (worst among playoff qualifiers) and had an 81.6% penalty kill. Defense has been the Rangers’ calling card all season – with very few exceptions they played tenacious, tight team defense all season – and they are very comfortable in low-scoring, tight-checking affairs. Their blue line is talented and deep, especially if Marc Staal returns to his 2011 form (he missed most of the season with a concussion). The Senators, on the other hand, have been involved in track meets all season – they allow 32 shots per game (only Carolina allowed more) and are the worst defensive team in the playoffs. Karlsson is a gifted playmaking defenseman, but he’s not the best in his own end…and Sergei Gonchar’s peak is several years behind him. Chris Phillips is a shutdown defenseman, and Filip Kuba has also had a strong year – aside from that, the blue line is suspect. ADVANTAGE: RANGERS, and it’s not close.

Goaltending – Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist (1.97 GAA, .930 save%) vs. the Senators’ Craig Anderson (2.83 GAA, .914 sv%). The difference in stats is stark, but Anderson plays behind a weak defense while Lundqvist plays behind one of the best defenses in hockey – the shot quality is as important as the shot total, and Anderson sees a LOT more quality shots than ‘King Henrik’ does. Now, I’m not saying that Anderson is as good as Lundqvist – he’s not, Henrik is one of the top goalies in the league and Anderson is merely above average – I’m just pointing out that Anderson is better than his stats would indicate. ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – NY’s John Tortorella is a fiery, in-your-face coach with a Cup win on his resume in Tampa. He’s likely to wear out his welcome eventually, but for now the team has 100% bought into his scheme. Paul MacLean was an assistant under Mike Babcock for years, but this season was his first as an NHL head coach – by any measure, the Senators overachieved, I (and many others) had them pegged as one of the five worst teams in preseason previews. The pressure is all on the Rangers as the #1 seed and playing in the Big Apple – they are expected to win this series handily, while the Sens are definitely playing with house money at this point. Both teams are as healthy as can be expected for this time of year.

Prediction – I think the Rangers definitely peaked too early, but they got a gift when the red-hot Capitals slid into the #7 seed ahead of the sputtering Senators. I think the Sens will win at least two games in this series, but the team defense and King Henrik will be the difference for New York. RANGERS IN SIX.

#2 Boston vs. #7 Washington

Offense – Boston scored 269 goals and recorded a 17.2% success rate on the powerplay. Washington scored 222 goals and had a 16.7% PP. Boston was #2 in the league in goals scored, trailing only Pittsburgh. The Bruins have enviable scoring depth – six 20-goal scorers, six 50-point scorers. Washington has only two 50-point scorers and three 20-goal scorers (although Nick Backstrom would have attained both marks had he not missed 40 games due to a concussion). Washington simply MUST get production from Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin to even have a chance in this series…the secondary scoring options are not that great for the Caps. Boston has a decisive advantage 5-on-5…they scored a league-leading 61 more goals than their opponents at even strength, while Washington scored and allowed exactly the same amount of even-strength goals. Ovechkin doesn’t play much defense, so the power play enhances his skill set – if the series is called tightly by the refs and each team gets a lot of power play time; that will help Washington. ADVANTAGE: BRUINS

Defense – Boston allowed 202 goals and killed 83.5% of opposing penalties. Washington allowed 230 goals and had an 81.6% PK. Note that while the Caps were actually OUTSCORED on the season, the Bruins outscored their opponents by the widest margin in the league – and a big part of that is their defensive corps. Zdeno Chara is most likely the top defenseman in the game today, and he has four excellent complementary blue liners in Corvo, Coychuk, Seidenberg, and Ference. Each of them can score a little, are very responsible in their own end, and durable. Washington, on the other hand, had problems on defense all year – John Carlson took a major step backward after a promising 2011, as did Jeff Schultz…while former 30-goal scorer Mike Green was all but invisible this year due to injury and ineffectiveness. Only the Blackhawks, Flyers, and Senators allowed more goals among playoff teams, and all of those teams were significantly better on offense. The Caps DESPERATELY need Wideman, Carlson, and Karl Alzner to step up in a big way to stay in this series. Compounding the problem is that the Caps’ top scoring forwards show varying levels of disinterest in playing defense, especially Semin and Ovechkin – which puts a TON of pressure on the defensemen. Washington is trying to play a more defensive style under Dale Hunter, but so far it’s decidedly a mixed bag. ADVANTAGE: BRUINS

Goaltending – Boston will start Tim Thomas. The Caps seem likely to start rookie Braden Holtby (2.50 GAA, .922 save% in seven games), but Michael Neuvirth (2.82 GAA, .903 save%) will play if he gets healthy. Washington has had major goaltender issues much of the year – Thomas Vokoun was signed to be ‘the guy’, but he has a bad groin injury and probably is out until May. Neuvirth was the ‘heir apparent’, but he has played quite poorly at times and certainly has not established himself as the answer in net. Holtby has played well in limited action, but can he perform under the harsh light of the playoffs? Thomas proved last year that he can get it done, the big question is at his age – can he sustain his performance over a long playoff run? With excellent backup Tukka Rask out with an injury, Thomas HAS to play well for Boston to win. ADVANTAGE: BRUINS

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Claude Julien took the Bruins all the way last spring, so his credentials are impeccable. Dale Hunter has tried to instill his brand of dirty tough play, and the results have been mixed…clearly, the Caps haven’t played tough enough defense, especially in light of their much weaker offense. Boston misses Nathan Horton, who is out with a concussion and isn’t expected back – with the return of Backstrom, the goalie injuries are Washington’s only injury issue right now. I’d say there’s more pressure on the Caps – they barely made the playoffs despite lofty expectations, and the Bruins are still basking in the glow of their Cup win…an upset loss here won’t cause a major roster upheaval for them, but it might for the Caps if they go down quickly.

Prediction – The Caps would have been better off losing the last game of the season to face the vulnerable Rangers, as opposed to the mighty Bruins. If Thomas shows his age and Ovechkin pours in six to eight  goals, this could be a series…but the Caps need to get all the breaks and frankly play over their heads a bit to even stretch this to six or seven games. At even strength the Bruins will dominate, and the way officials are (not) calling penalties I foresee a LOT of 5-on-5 play in every series. BRUINS IN SIX.

#3 Florida vs. #6 New Jersey

Offense – Florida scored 203 goals (second worst among playoff teams) with an 18.5% power play; New Jersey scored 228 goals with a 17.2% power play. Florida had a very anemic offense – only three 20-goal scorers, only four 50-point scorers – and their fifth-highest scorer totaled only 33 points!! This is a 1-line scoring team for sure – Weiss, Versteeg, and Fleischmann are good, but if they get shut down it will be hard for Florida to score enough to win. New Jersey also isn’t that deep, but their top scorers are far superior to Florida’s – Ilya Kovalchuk recorded 37 goals and 83 points, and Zach Parise and David Clarkson also got to 30 goals. Patrik Elias and Peter Sykora provided some scoring depth, and with that scoring punch it’s clear that his isn’t the defense-oriented, trapping club of the 90’s. After those players, however, the scoring falls off dramatically for New Jersey – none of their defensemen really provide ANY offense – their top blue line scorer netted 18 points – and their third/fourth line forwards pretty much never score. So while both teams have scoring depth issues, New Jersey has much more skilled forwards on their top lines. ADVANTAGE: DEVILS

Defense – Florida allowed 227 goals and their penalty kill was 79.5%; New Jersey allowed 209 goals and had the NHL’s top penalty kill at 89.6%. Florida has some skilled defensemen in Brian Campbell and Jason Garrison, but neither is known for their shutdown abilities…Florida plays solid defense, but they give up a lot of chances and they are downright bad on the penalty kill. New Jersey’s defensemen are generally not huge hitters, but they make the smart, safe plays consistently and they are fairly deep on defense. That penalty kill percentage is amazing – almost 90%! Neither team is that great 5-on-5, but the Devils’ special teams in particular got them to the playoffs…and that starts with their penalty kill. ADVANTAGE: DEVILS

Goaltending – Jose Theodore (2.46 GAA, .917 save%) vs. Martin Brodeur (2.41 GAA, .908 save%). The Devils allowed few goals in spite of Brodeur, not because of him as in the past…that save percentage is among the lowest of his career, and the goals against average was the second-highest. He’s simply not the goalie he once was, and he rarely can ‘steal’ a game anymore. Theodore is what he is, an average to slightly above-average goalie, but at this point it’s clear to me that he’s better than Brodeur. ADVANTAGE: PANTHERS

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Kevin Dineen is in his first year as an NHL coach, and he managed to guide Florida to their first playoff appearance in 10 years. Devils coach Peter DeBoer coached Florida for three seasons before coming to New Jersey, so one would expect he knows most of Florida’s personnel pretty well. Both teams are relatively healthy, and aside from DeBoer’s inside knowledge I don’t see a lot of intangibles benefitting either team.

Prediction – New Jersey got the best seed of any Atlantic team, getting a chance to face a weak Florida team rather than the potent Senators, Penguins, or Flyers. I expect them to take full advantage of this – Florida was outscored by a whopping 24 goals, and they actually lost more games (counting OT/shootout losses) than they won on the year. They are to be commended for making the playoffs, but I think their great season ends here – Kovalchuk and company should make life miserable for Theodore. DEVILS IN FIVE.

#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Philadelphia

Offense – Pittsburgh scored 282 goals – easily tops in the NHL – and had a 19.7% power play. Philly scored 264 goals (third in the league) and also recorded a 19.7% power play. Talk about a marquee matchup…two of the top three offenses going at it in the first round! Both teams feature top-5 scorers (Malkin led the league with 109 points; Claude Giroux ended up third with 93); both have plenty of scoring depth, both have defensemen that can contribute offensively, especially on the power play (Timonen for the Flyers, Letang for the Pens); and both are quite adept at playing from behind. In fact, Philly and Pittsburgh were ranked #1 and #2 in wins after allowing the first goal! Neither team is afraid to trade scoring chances, and both prefer an up-tempo, aggressive style. I think it’s safe to say Pittsburgh has an advantage at center – with Crosby, Malkin, and Staal, they have the best trio of centers in the game and that creates matchup nightmares for the opposition. The Flyers counter with a pair of high-scoring, gritty wingers in Hartnell and Simmonds, and Matt Read scored 24 as well. Bottom line: both teams can fill the net; don’t look for any shutouts or 2-1 games in this series. With Crosby back and playing extremely well, however (37 points in only 22 games), I have to give Pittsburgh the edge. ADVANTAGE: PENGUINS

Defense – Pittsburgh allowed 221 goals and killed penalties at an 87.8% clip, third in the league. Philly allowed 232 goals and had an 81.8% penalty kill. The loss of Chris Pronger to a severe concussion REALLY hurt Philly’s defense – he was their captain, their rock, and they’ve struggled to replace him. Timonen and Carle are a good defense pair, and Coburn and Meszaros are solid as well, but there’s not a shut-down defenseman on their roster. Philly has played very solid defense at times, but they’ve also endured long stretches of rather loose play. Pittsburgh was a VERY tight team defensively…until they got healthy. Once Crosby came back, the team played run-and-gun hockey almost every night, trading scoring chances at every opportunity. Fleury’s play made that a winning strategy most nights, but in the playoffs Pittsburgh HAS to clamp down once again defensively or they will have problems. Kris Letang is a top 2-way defenseman, and Brooks Orpik still brings the big hits; but Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek were very inconsistent all season. They are the key to this series in my opinion…the Pens will score, I have no doubt, but Martin and Michalek will likely be assigned to the Hartnell/Giroux line and they have to contain that group. I think that Letang is the best defenseman in the series, but I like the consistency and depth of the Flyers group just a little more – in short, I don’t see an edge here. ADVANTAGE: EVEN.

Goaltending – Marc-Andre Fleury (2.36 GAA, .913 save%) vs. Ilya Bryzgalov (2.48 GAA, .909 save%). Bryzgalov was signed to FINALLY solidify the Flyers’ long-standing goalie issues – but for most of the season he was very unreliable. However, down the stretch he finally found his game, and seems to be in top form heading onto the postseason…given his struggles last April, however, he’s suspect until he shows otherwise. Backup Sergei Bobrovsky is capable if needed. Fleury had a much better year than those stats show – as mentioned above, he faced a TON of great scoring chances in March/April and had to play extremely well just to keep the opposition under four goals most nights. Fleury has won a Cup, he’s confident, and he shakes off adversity very quickly…as long as he isn’t overworked and stays healthy, he’s the pick here. ADVANTAGE: PENGUINS

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Dan Bylsma is the defending Coach of the Year in the NHL, won a Cup in 2009, and shows no sign of losing the ‘pulse’ of the team – he should be the coach for years to come, and this is likely his most talented team yet. Peter Laviolette is a gruff, old-school coach – a tremendous fit in Philly – and the team seems to respond well to him also. Both teams are going to feel pressure in this series – if Pittsburgh bows out in Round 1, questions will start to be asked about the roster, especially on defense – while for the Flyers, they have not won a Cup in 35 years and if Bryzgalov is anything less than very good, the Philly fans will be all over him. Pronger and vanRiemsdyk are out for the Flyers, and those are big losses…the Pens are as healthy as they’ve been all season, and continuing that health will be a big key for them in the playoffs.

Prediction – This is NOT an ideal matchup for Pittsburgh – I’d much rather have seen the Rangers, Devils, or Caps – but frankly I think Pittsburgh is the conference favorite until proven otherwise, and while I expect a tough, intense series I think the skill of Pittsburgh will be too much in the end for Philly. Barring injury, PENGUINS IN SIX!

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Los Angeles:

Offense – Vancouver scored 249 goals, and ranked fourth with a 19.8% power play. Los Angeles scored 194 goals with a 17% power play. LA was the only playoff team to score less than 200 goals, and that was their Achilles’ heel all season (although adding Jeff Carter at the trade deadline was a big help). Amazing stat of the series: the Kings had only FIVE players score 10 or more goals (Vancouver had 10)!! That’s almost unheard of, and puts tremendous pressure on their top line to score. ADVANTAGE: CANUCKS, and it’s really not close.

Defense – Vancouver allowed 194 goals and had an 86% penalty kill. Los Angeles allowed 179 goals and had an 87% penalty kill. Obviously both teams kill penalties well, but the Kings were much better defending 5-on-5, and overall I think they have the better blue line. ADVANTAGE: KINGS.

Goaltending – Roberto Luongo 2.41 GAA, .919 save% vs. Jonathan Quick 1.95 GAA, .929 save%. Quick has had the better season – frankly, he was their MVP and the reason they made the playoffs – but Luongo is battle-tested and plays in a more wide-open offense. One major difference: if Luongo stumbles even a little, Vancouver has an outstanding backup in Cory Schneider – while the Kings will go only as far as Quick takes them. This is pretty close to dead even, but Quick has had the better season and Luongo has had some brittle moments in the playoffs. ADVANTAGE: KINGS

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Alain Vigneault is a proven coach in Vancouver, having led the team to the Cup Finals a season ago. LA changed coaches in December, and while Darryl Sutter is a veteran coach, he hasn’t produced the same kind of results. Vancouver has been through the gauntlet of a Finals run and seems hungry to get back there, while the Kings have had no playoff success. L.A. HAS to score first as they fare the worst of any playoff team if they give up the first goal. One major injury could impact the series: Vancouver’s leading goal scorer Daniel Sedin is out with a concussion.

Prediction – The Kings may have small advantages in goal and on defense, but the Canucks have a HUGE advantage offensively – it’s so hard to win with only one scoring line today. I just don’t see the Kings scoring enough to pull off the upset. Quick can steal a game or two, but I like the CANUCKS IN SIX.

#2 St. Louis vs. #7 San Jose:

Offense – St. Louis scored 210 goals and had a 16.7% power play, while San Jose scored 228 goals and had an outstanding 21.1% power play. The Blues had no 30-goal scorers and no player amassed more than 54 points – but they had nine score 10+ goals, and they got contributions from three lines. The Sharks had three 30-goal scorers, but no other player even scored 20. If the series is played 5-on-5 with few penalties, it will definitely favor the Blues, but San Jose’s power play is enough to give them the edge here. ADVANTAGE: SHARKS

Defense – St. Louis allowed a league-low 165 goals, and killed 85.6% of penalties. San Jose allowed 210 goals and had the second-worst PK in the game at only 76.9%. Ken Hitchcock-coached teams always play tough ‘D’, and this Blues team is no exception – they are STACKED on the blue line and play his system to perfection. ADVANTAGE – BLUES

Goaltending – St. Louis has Jaroslav Halak (1.97 GAA, .926 save%) and Brian Elliott (1.56 GAA, .940 save%) vs. San Jose’s Antti Niemi (2.42GAA, .915 sv%). Even allowing for the fact that Hitchcock’s system makes goalies look better than they are, there’s simply no contest here – the Blues have the best goaltending tandem in the league. ADVANTAGE – BLUES

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Hitchcock took over the Blues after 13 games – they were 6-7 and seemed like the same old mediocre Blues we’ve seen for years. They went 43-15-11 under his leadership. Meanwhile, San Jose’s Todd McLellan has seen his team’s win total decrease every season he’s coached them. Hitchcock’s system hasn’t been a playoff winner, so watch for that…but otherwise, it sure seems like a huge advantage for St. Louis. Both teams are completely healthy.

Prediction – The Blues were by far the hottest team in the NHL from November through early March – but they have only four wins in their last 12 games, a slump which cost them the #1 overall seed (as an aside, I’m very glad – who would want to watch the Kings and Blues play six or seven 1-0 games?).  The question is, did the Blues peak too early, and do the Sharks have one more run left in them? I’m not sold on the Blues to go far in the playoffs – at some point you need real talent at forward – but against the undisciplined and fading Sharks, I think they will get it done. BLUES IN FIVE.

#3 Phoenix vs. #6 Chicago:

Offense – Phoenix scored 216 goals with a 13.6% power play, while Chicago scored 248 goals with a 15.2% power play – these are the two worst power plays among playoff teams. Chicago has Kane, Toews, Hossa, and Sharp…the Coyotes have Doan, Ray Whitney, and the surprising Radim Vrbata. Phoenix has some weapons, but the ‘Hawks are among the most potent offenses in the league…ADVANTAGE: BLACKHAWKS

Defense – Phoenix allowed 204 goals and killed 85.5% of penalties, while Chicago allowed 238 goals and killed only 78.1% on the PK. Keith Yandle headlines an underrated blue line corps for the Coyotes, while the Blackhawks have a top pair in Keith and Seabrook but questions after that. Phoenix’ punchless power play vs. Chicago’s weak penalty kill will be a key matchup. ADVANTAGE: COYOTES

Goaltending – Coyotes’ Mike Smith (2.21 GAA, .930 save% vs. ‘Hawks’ Corey Crawford (2.72 GAA, .903 save%). Smith was a revelation in the desert this season, enjoying a career year after being cast aside by Tampa. Goaltending has been an issue for two seasons in Chicago, and Crawford was definitely a weak link again this year. ADVANTAGE: COYOTES

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Each team boasts seasoned coaches with proven records in Tippett and Quenneville – what Tippett has done in Phoenix, with a constant exodus of talent, has been amazing.  The only injury is to Chicago C Dave Bolland. Most of the Blackhawks have Cup-winning experience, while the Coyotes by and large have never experienced playoff success.

Prediction – There’s no doubt that Chicago has significant vulnerability on defense and (especially) in goal…the question is whether the Coyotes have enough offense to exploit that. Both of these teams overachieved to a certain extent, especially Phoenix – Smith was really good, but he has to prove it wasn’t a fluke now that the pressure is really on. This should be an excellent series…but I think that Chicago’s defensive issues are just too much to overcome. COYOTES IN SIX.

#4 Nashville vs. #5 Detroit:

Offense – Nashville scored 237 goals, and had the NHL’s #1 power play at 21.6%, while Detroit scored 248 goals and had a 16.1% power play. Detroit had 11 players score 10+ goals, and 14 record 20+ points…and of course they have tons of skill with Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen, and Hudler. Nashville had only two 20-goal scorers, but they have perhaps the top pair of offensive defensemen in Suter and Weber – the pair combined for 26 goals and were a big reason Nashville was #1 on the power play. I love Weber and Suter, and the late-season addition of Alexander Radulov really helps, but even with their advancing age I have to give the nod to Detroit. ADVANTAGE: RED WINGS

Defense – Nashville allowed 210 goals and killed 83.6% of penalties, while Detroit allowed 203 goals and had a kill rate of 81.8%. I was VERY surprised to see that Detroit gave up fewer goals than the stingy Predators – that just shows how under-the-radar the Wings really were this season. Nicklas Lidstrom had another great year at age 41, and the Red Wings STILL go 6-deep on defense. The Predators have Suter and Weber, and they each average over 26 minutes per game…but their other four defensemen are a lot more suspect. Are two outstanding defensemen enough? I guess we will see. Given the minutes those two play and the fact that the teams have similar penalty-kill stats, I can’t give an edge here. ADVANTAGE: EVEN

Goaltending – Detroit’s Jimmy Howard (2.12 GAA, .920 save%) vs. Nashville’s Pekka Rinne (2.39 GAA, .923 save%). Howard has become a fine goalie and has put up some excellent numbers, but Rinne can carry a team when he’s on. Can’t go wrong with either, but I’ll take Rinne. ADVANTAGE: PREDATORS

Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Barry Trotz has been Nashville’s only coach, while Mike Babcock has led the Wings to three Cup Finals and one Cup win – suffice it to say, both coaches have the trust and respect of their teams. Both teams are healthy, and Detroit’s playoff experience is balanced out by their age – most of their top players are on the wrong side of thirty. That shouldn’t be an issue in this series, but can the Wings maintain their energy for four rounds anymore?

Prediction – This sets up as the best first-round series in the West, and the margin should be razor-thin. Detroit has the talent to pull this out, but I think Rinne will steal a couple of games and the powerful Predator power play will score some big goals as well. Frankly, adding Radulov puts them over the top….PREDATORS IN SEVEN.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a close look at the Eastern matchups…focusing on the Pennsylvania Showdown between the Flyers and the Pens! 

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

If you missed the previous preview columns click here for Part One, click here for Part Two.

AL CENTRAL

Chicago White Sox

2011 Record: 79-83 (3^rd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  3^rd place

Key Additions:  OF Kosuke Fukudome

Key Losses: SP Mark Buehrle, SS Omar Vizquel, OF Juan Pierre

Cleveland Indians

2011 Record:  80-82 (2^nd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  5^th place

Key Additions:  SP Derek Lowe, 1B Casey Kotchman

Key Losses:  DH Jim Thome, OF Kosuke Fukudome

Detroit Tigers

2011 Record: 95-67 (1^st)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  2^nd place

Key Additions:  1B Prince Fielder, RP Octavio Dotel

Key Losses:  1B/DH Victor Martinez (injury), OF Magglio Ordonez, SP Brad Penny

Kansas City Royals

2011 Record:  71-91 (4^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  4^th place

Key Additions:  SP Jonathan Sanchez, RP Jonathan Broxton

Key Losses: OF Melky Cabrera, RP Joakim Soria (injury)

Minnesota Twins

2011 Record: 63-99 (5^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  1^st place

Key Additions:  C Ryan Doumit, OF Josh Willingham, 2B/SS Jamey Carroll, SP Jason Marquis

Key Losses: RP Joe Nathan, DH Jason Kubel, OF Michael Cuddyer

Predicted Standings:

Detroit (93-96 wins)

Minnesota (82-85 wins)

Kansas City (78-81 wins)

Cleveland (74-77 wins)

Chicago Sox (68-72 wins)

Division Analysis:

The White Sox are in rebuilding mode, having fired longtime manager Ozzie Guillen, let Mark Buehrle leave, and traded Carlos Quentin. There’s some talent in the rotation in Danks and Floyd, but barring miracle comebacks from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios this projects to be a TERRIBLE offense. It could be awhile before the south-siders compete again.

Cleveland seems stuck in a mediocre rut – unable to put the pieces together to contend, they do have enough pieces to fight for a .500 finish. Like Chicago there are elements of a good rotation – if Lowe has another good year in him and Jimenez rediscovers his form, this could be a VERY good rotation – but the offense is still a work in progress. I look for improvement from Carlos Santana and Shin-soo Choo, but there is reason to question every other hitter in the lineup. There’s definitely some upside here – the middle three teams in this division could finish in any order, they are that close – but I don’t see enough upside for the Indians to compete with the Tigers.

Kansas City is pegged as a darkhorse by many, and I love much of the offense they are building…but I’m absolutely NOT sold on their pitching at all. It’s within the realm of possibility that none of their starters will finish with an ERA below 4.2, and you cannot win in 2012 with starting pitching that poor. Hosmer, Gordon, Butler, and maybe Moustakas will provide the core of a contending offense a few years from now, but the Royals HAVE to figure out their pitching first.

Minnesota absolutely collapsed a year ago, and the news that Scott Baker is on the DL already makes me hesitant to pick them this high – but the fact is, they had far more talent a year ago than a 99-loss team, and if Mauer and Morneau come back healthy (admittedly a big if), that will have a HUGE impact on this team. Doumit will help a lot as a part-time C and effective DH when needed, and Willingham will help ease the departure of Kubel. They won’t have a lot of power and they will need Liriano to bounce back on the mound, but the Twins have a good chance of finishing at or above .500.

There are always surprises in baseball, and certainly there are possible ways the Tigers could lose the AL Central – but to me, they are more of an odds-on favorite than any team in MLB. They have a dominant ace pitcher and two other good starters, a deep bullpen, and (on paper) by far the best offense in the division. Long-term, the Fielder contract will likely be a huge problem for Detroit – but for the next 2-3 years Fielder will really help the Tigers’ offense. He and Cabrera represent the best power/average combo in the league, and along with a solid cast of complementary hitters should keep the Tigers at the top of the division.

One word of caution: with Martinez gone for the season, an injury to Fielder, Cabrera, or Verlander would be a HUGE blow and likely would make the division a lot more competitive. Verlander had a huge innings total a year ago, and neither Cabrera nor Fielder is exactly known for their conditioning. Watch this team’s health closely.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

2011 Record:  71-91 (5^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 4^th place

Key Additions:  OF David DeJesus, SP Paul Maholm, 3B Ian Stewart, SP Chris Volstad

Key Losses:  SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Sean Marshall, 3B Aramis Ramirez, 1B Carlos Pena

Cincinnati Reds

2011 Record: 79-83 (3^rd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  2^nd place

Key Additions:  SP Mat Latos, RP Sean Marshall, RP Ryan Madson (injured), rookie C Devin Mesoraco

Key Losses: SP Edinson Volquez,  P Travis Wood, C Ramon Hernandez, SS Edgar Renteria

Houston Astros

2011 Record:  56-106 (6^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 6^th place

Key Additions:  IF Jed Lowrie, P Kyle Weiland

Key Losses:  SS Clint Barmes, P Mark Melancon

Milwaukee Brewers

2011 Record: 96-66 (1^st)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 1^st place

Key Additions:  3B Aramis Ramirez, SS Alex Gonzalez

Key Losses: 1B Prince Fielder, RP LaTroy Hawkins

Pittsburgh Pirates

2011 Record: 72-90 (4^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  5^th place

Key Additions:  SP Erik Bedard, SP AJ Burnett, SS Clint Barmes, C Rod Barajas, 3B Casey McGehee

Key Losses: C Ryan Doumit, OF Xavier Paul, SP Paul Maholm, SS Ronny Cedeno

St. Louis Cardinals

2011 Record: 90-72 (2^nd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  3^rd place

Key Additions: OF Carlos Beltran, RP JC Romero

Key Losses:  1B Albert Pujols, SP Edwin Jackson, RP Octavio Dotel

Predicted Standings:

Milwaukee (88-92 wins)

Cincinnati (85-88 wins)

St. Louis (81-84 wins)

Pittsburgh (76-80 wins)

Chicago (71-76 wins)

Houston (69-72 wins)

Division Analysis:

We’ll save the Pirates for last…Houston finally bottomed out last year, losing 106 games and trading away almost all of their offensive assets. They still have pitchers they could move, and with Brett Myers moving to the bullpen I expect him to be traded at the very least – but the Astros also have new ownership and new management and might want to hang on to Rodriguez and Norris as building blocks for the next good Astros team. In any case, this team has virtually no proven offensive weapons, a thin rotation, and an unproven bullpen – they are on the short list for worst NL teams again in 2012.

Chicago also has new management in former Boston GM Theo Epstein, and he has a whale of a mess to deal with. The only truly awful contract left is Soriano’s, but there’s not a lot of talent on this club offensively or on the mound. Starlin Castro is a player to build around and Geovanny Soto should improve, but the offense won’t nearly be good enough – and in the rotation, aside from Matt Garza everyone else is a #4 or worse on a contending staff. Theo will be given some time to turn it around in Wrigley, but it’s going to take a couple of years.

St. Louis exceeded all expectations in 2011- making a miracle run both in September to make the postseason in their last regular-season game, then knocking off favorite after favorite to send Tony LaRussa out with a bang. Unfortunately, the offseason saw the loss of Pujols, LaRussa, pitching coach Dave Duncan, and spring training has seen injury befall ace Chris Carpenter. Duncan in particular had a well-deserved reputation for improving retread veteran pitchers, and I expect the entire Cards staff to take a step back in 2012. The offense is still solid, as Holliday, Berkman, and Beltran form a formidable core if healthy – but the latter two had HUGE bounce-back years in 2011 and are due to regress a bit. This was the top offense in the league a year ago – with age and the loss of Pujols, they will slip a few notches this season.

The rotation is frankly a mess with Carpenter out – Jaime Garcia is a good #3-type starter, Adam Wainwright is coming off injury, and the rest of the rotation is either proven mediocrities or unproven converted relievers.  There are enough solid arms to form a decent bullpen, but this staff is not good enough to win without Carpenter. There’s still hope – if Carpenter comes back quickly, St. Louis could possibly contend – but I think the Cards’ window has closed, and they will struggle to reach .500 in 2012.

Cincinnati won the division in 2010, took a major step backward in 2011, and appear primed to make another serious run in 2012. The offense isn’t in question – they were #1 in runs in 2010 and #2 in 2011 – with Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, and Phillips, they have an outstanding offensive core. The question is on the mound – they gave up 720 runs a year ago, far more than any NL contender, and they will have to improve that by at least 50 to be a factor this season. They made some aggressive changes, adding Mat Latos, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Madson – Madson was since lost to injury, and it remains to be seen if Latos can put up ace-level numbers away from Petco  Park, but he should bolster the rotation. Cincy needs Marshall to step in and solidify the bullpen, they need health from Johnny Cueto, and they need a big bounce-back season from Bronson Arroyo. All those things are quite possible, and this team should contend all season – but I am JUST uncertain enough about their pitching (and manager Dusty Baker’s handling of the staff) to pick them a close second.

Milwaukee suffered a tough loss in the playoffs, and another one this winter when Prince Fielder left town – but looking at their roster, there still aren’t many holes on this team, especially on the hill. Gallardo and Grienke are a fine pair of aces, if Marcum is healthy and Wolf maintains his 2011 performance they are the best rotation in the division by far. The bullpen is deep and talented, and should have little trouble closing out late leads.

Offensively, losing Fielder obviously hurts – all the more so because he was their only left-handed power threat, and they now are overwhelmingly right-handed. Even at that, they have a potent core in Braun, Hart, Weeks, and newly-acquired 3B Aramis Ramirez. They won’t be as powerful as in 2011 but they also have few holes and should score their share of runs, especially in homer-happy Miller Park. They won’t be as good as a season ago, but in a fairly weak division they should be just good enough to win their second division title in a row.

Now, the Buccos…we all know how they exceeded expectations through late July last year, then collapsed the last two months. Some say the 20-inning affair in Atlanta altered their course, frankly I say water seeks its own level and the Pirates were playing way above their heads for four months. The pitching improved, there is no doubt, but the offense was frankly a barren wasteland – they scored only 610 runs, only San Diego and San Francisco scored fewer. We’ll get to the pitching in a minute, there’s real promise on the hill, but offensively this team is frankly not capable of delivering at a contending level. McCutchen should really break out this season, Walker is steady at second, and there’s always a chance that Pedro Alvarez finally figures it out…but aside from that, there’s almost no power, precious little speed, and only Tabata figures to hit for a high average.  You HAVE to score a decent amount of runs to win, even with GREAT pitching (which the Bucs don’t have) – and no matter how well they pitch, these Bucs won’t hit enough to win consistently. Worse, there’s precious little help on the farm on offense.

The pitching is a decidedly different story – Morton really showed flashes a year ago, as did James McDonald later in the season. The additions of Bedard and Burnett were smart, low-risk high-upside moves and if even one of them pans out, it gives Pittsburgh a very solid rotation AND a valuable chip to play at the trade deadline. With Taillon and Cole on the way by late 2013, the pitching figures to be strong in Pittsburgh for the next few years (barring injury as always). The bullpen won’t be a strong as a season ago, but Hanrahan has established himself as a premier closer – and yes, an attractive trade option in July. Before you complain about the Pirates trading such players, ask yourself if Hanrahan is likely to be as effective by the time the Bucs next compete for the division, and if Kansas City now wishes they had traded Joakim Soria LAST year, before he blew out his elbow? Closers are made, not born – as much as I like Hanrahan, the Pirates should take any reasonable offer they get for him.

In any case, look for more of the same in Pittsburgh – a decent pitching performance from the rotation, a lot of heartbreaking 3-2 and 4-3 type losses, and frustration at the plate. I’m being optimistic calling for 76-80 wins, but that says more about the down state of the division than my faith in the Pirates. A winning record is a longshot; competing for the division is a pipe dream, as usual.

Next week we will preview round 1 of the NHL playoffs…my favorite time of the year J

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

AL EAST

Baltimore Orioles

2011 Record: 69-93 (5^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 5^th place

Key Additions: SP Tsuyoshi Wada, SP Jason Hammel, RP Matt Lindstrom, DH Wilson Betemit

Key Losses: DH Vlad Guerrero, SP Jeremy Guthrie, OF Luke Scott

Boston Red Sox

2011 Record: 90-72 (3^rd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 1^st place

Key Additions:  RP Andrew Bailey, RP Mark Melancon, C Kelly Shoppach, IF Nick Punto, OF Cody Ross, OF Ryan Sweeney

Key Losses: SP Erik Bedard, SP Tim Wakefield, RP Jonathan Papelbon, RF JD Drew, C Jason Varitek, SS Marco Scutaro, IF Jed Lowrie

New York Yankees

2011 Record: 97-65 (1^st)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 2^nd place

Key Additions: SP Michael Pineda, SP Hiroki Kuroda, DH Raul Ibanez

Key Losses: C Jorge Posada, SP Bartolo Colon

Tampa Bay Rays

2011 Record: 91-71 (2^nd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction:  4^th place

Key Additions: 1B Carlos Pena, IF Jeff Keppinger, DH Luke Scott, C Jose Molina

Key Losses: OF Johnny Damon, C Kelly Shoppach

Toronto Blue Jays

2011 Record: 81-81 (4^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 3^rd place

Key Additions:  RP Francisco Cordero, RP Jason Frasor

Key Losses: C Jose Molina

Predicted Standings:

New York (95-98 wins)

Boston (88-92 wins)

Tampa (84-88 wins)

Toronto(76-81 wins)

Baltimore (66-70 wins)

Division Analysis: Baltimore is simply outgunned here – their rotation is chock-full of question marks, the bullpen has no standouts, the offense has only a handful of proven players – none of them superstars – and there are just too many questions for this team to even consider finishing above .500 in this division.

Toronto has plenty of power – they hit a fair number of home runs (fifth in the AL last year) and should hit even more this season – led by superstar Jose Bautista – but they don’t project to get on base that much and the rotation is not that deep. If some of the young pitchers really develop quickly, I could see this team as a darkhorse contender, but the odds are that Toronto will struggle to reach .500 yet again.

I picked Tampa fourth a year ago, only to see them finish second and win the wildcard on the last day of the season. Why am I picking them to finish behind the Sox? Well, the Rays’ pitching was excellent – the best in the AL – but the big surprise was their offense, they were almost exactly league-average which was good enough with their excellent run prevention. The problem is, I don’t see a whole lot of improvement on the offensive side, but I think the pitching has to regress a little – no way that they are the best run-prevention team again this season, not in this division, and unless the offense picks up the slack I don’t see how they can win 90 games again. Pena will help some, but this team needs Desmond Jennings to be the real deal with the bat in order to truly contend.

Boston’s epic collapse rightly was the focus, but this was a very talented team a year ago – they scored the most runs in MLB, and only three teams had a better run differential. The weakness was clearly the pitching, especially the back of the rotation – and that’s true again in 2012, as after Lester and Beckett there are still a lot of questions. The Sox have a lot of options however, especially once Matsuzaka recovers from elbow surgery (he’s due back no later than June 1) – and the bullpen should still be strong. Offensively, the team has potential holes at SS and RF, but once Carl Crawford is healthy one has to expect him to rebound from an awful 2011 campaign. David Ortiz is due for a decline, and overall the offense should decline a bit, but this team is still very capable of winning 90 games and making the postseason. This might be the end of their window, however – the offense is aging and the farm system isn’t producing as it once did.

Last year I figured that the Yankees didn’t have the pitching to win the division – but I didn’t count on Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia pitching like it was 1999. This season the Yankees took decisive action to shore up the rotation, trading for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda. Pineda is primed to become a true ace barring injury – he’s a name to remember – and while Kuroda toiled in relative anonymity for the Dodgers, he’s also a quality pitcher who will solidify the rotation. The offense is as solid as ever – Jeter might be done, but this offense can afford a hole at shortstop and I’d expect the Yanks to make a move if they need more pop at DH during the season. The bullpen is also deep – in short, the Yankees are as tough as ever and have to be the odds-on favorite to win the division and the AL pennant.

NL EAST

Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89-73 (2^nd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 1^st place

Key Additions: rookie SS Tyler Pastornicky,

Key Losses: SS Alex Gonzalez, OF NateMcLouth, RP George Sherrill, SP Derek Lowe

Miami Marlins

2011 Record: 72-90(5^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 3^rd place

Key Additions: SS Jose Reyes, SP Mark Buehrle, SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Heath Bell

Key Losses: SP Javier Vazquez, P Chris Volstad

New York Mets

2011 Record: 77-85 (4^th)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 4^th place

Key Additions OF Andres Torres, RP Frank Francisco, RP Ramon Ramirez, RP Jon Rauch

Key Losses: SS Jose Reyes, OF Angel Pagan, SP Chris Capuano, RP Jason Isringhausen

Philadelphia Phillies

2011 Record: 102-60 (1^st)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 2^nd place

Key Additions: 1B Jim Thome, OF Laynce Nix, RP Jonathan Papelbon, RP Chad Qualls

Key Losses: OF Raul Ibanez, SP Roy Oswalt,  RP Brad Lidge, RP Ryan Madson, 1B Ryan Howard (injured)

Washington Nationals

2011 Record: 80-81 (3^rd)

2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 5^th place

Key Additions: SP Gio Gonzalez, SP Edwin Jackson, RP Brad Lidge

Key Losses: RP Todd Coffey, C Ivan Rodriguez, OF Laynce Nix

Predicted Standings:

Atlanta (92-96 wins)

Washington (88-91 wins)

Philadelphia (84-88 wins)

Miami (79-82 wins)

New York (69-73 wins)

Division Analysis: VERY tough division to figure out because there have been so many HUGE changes on every team, but as usual let’s start at the bottom:

The Mets are by far the worst team in the division. Their offense is weak even if David Wright rebounds; there is little power and few proven performers. The rotation is average at best, and well below that if Johan Santana cannot come back. The bullpen is mostly castoffs – in short, the Mets are in a full rebuilding mode.

Florida Miami made some bold moves to try to compete for the NL East and maximize the revenue from moving into their shiny new ballpark. The addition of Jose Reyes will help – but let’s keep in mind, his 2011 numbers were WAY out of line with his career, expect a sharp decline in 2012. A rebound by Hanley Ramirez will likely offset that some, and they have power in the outfield with Morrison and (especially) Stanton, but this is still not a dominant offense. The Marlins lost last year because their pitching failed them, and while adding Mark Buehrle adds stability, he’s no ace. Adding Zambrano is a very risky move, one that could really pay off or could cause major problems in the clubhouse…but the key to the Marlins is the health of ace Josh Johnson. When he can pitch, he dominates – but with only 60 innings last year after missing time in 2010, that health is an open question at this point. Florida has as much upside as anyone in the East, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them end up as high as second in the division – but I need to see more from their pitchers before I am a believer.

I’m predicting a big fall for the Phillies, and the main reason is their suddenly-weak offense. The bombing days of yore appear to be over – with Ryan Howard out indefinitely, Jimmy Rollins in decline and Chase Utley battling career-threatening leg issues, the infield is simply not an offensive threat right now. Jim Thome MIGHT be able to fill Howard’s shoes, but he’s 42 and hasn’t played the field much in many years. The outfield is a somewhat brighter picture with Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence, but based on what I see this offense will be in the lower half of the league in 2012.

However, the pitching actually concerns me even more – last year the Phillies had BY FAR the best run prevention in baseball, allowing only 529 runs! Simply put, they will allow more runs this year, as age, injury and plain old regression to the mean all catch up to them. Even assuming the ‘big Three’ of Halladay, Hamels and Lee throw 650 innings of 2.50 ERA ball (and I expect one of them to decline), the back end of the rotation is pretty questionable and aside from Bastardo and Papelbon, so is the bullpen. In short, this looks much more like a .500 club than a 100-game winner…I’m giving them bonus points for the strength of the ‘Big Three’ and the chance that Utley returns quickly and hits well – but no way do I see anything like 100 wins here, and their margin for error is now so thin that I could see .500 being a struggle for them if they have one more major injury.

I ALMOST picked the Nationals to win the division – I like a lot about what they are building in DC, and I think they are setting up to be contenders for years to come. I hesitated because they still have some holes to fill on offense – I’m not sold on Bernadina in center, Desmond at SS, or LaRoche at 1B (or whoever ends up in LF if Morse moves back there). However, a core of Zimmerman, Morse, Espinosa, and Werth is quite solid and with Bryce Harper soon to join the team, this should be a solid offense for the next several years.

The real strength of the Nationals, however, is on the mound. With Strasburg healthy and Gio Gonzalez brought in, this rotation can match up with almost any in the NL other than Philly and SF. Not long ago John Lannan was their ace – now he’s their fifth starter, a role he’s more than capable of handling. They also have a deep bullpen (assuming Storen is healthy). I think they will contend for much of the season, but between their limitations on offense and Strasburg’s 160-inning limit, I think they will fall just short in 2012.

The Braves appear to be poised to rule the roost in the East once again – offensively, I expect big bounce-back seasons from Dan Uggla, Martin Prado, and (especially) Jason Heyward – don’t be surprised to see Heyward as one of the top hitters in the NL this season. In fact, if those three DO bounce back, the only true hole in the lineup projects to be at SS – where a couple of rookies are battling for the opening day nod. Either way, this should be a better offense than the Braves had in 2011 – and make no mistake, that’s crucial, because the Braves’ below-average offense is ultimately what doomed them a year ago.

The pitching should be quite strong – Hanson, Jurrjens, and Hudson give the Braves a very good top three starters, they have some depth for the back of the rotation, and the back end of the bullpen might just be the best in the game. I look for the Braves to give up a few more runs this season – allowing only 605 runs is tough to repeat – but this should still be one of the top three or four staffs in the league.

The Braves won’t run away with the division, and as always injuries or ineffectiveness will play a big part in their season – but in a very tough, deep division I think the Braves have what it takes to claim the flag.

Later this week we’ll end our preview with a look at the central divisions. Quick preview: I’m down on the Cardinals and Pirates chances…look for that column Thursday!

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

It’s time for the Eye’s annual baseball preview series – and there have been some huge changes around baseball in the offseason, many of them out west. We’ll take a look at the AL and NL West divisions this week, with the eastern divisions to follow next week. Let’s start in the NL:

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks

2011 Record: 94-68 (1^st)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 5^th place

                                                                                        Key Additions: LF Jason Kubel, SP Trevor Cahill, RP Craig Breslow, RP Takashi Saito

                                                                                        Key Losses: SP Jason Marquis

 Colorado Rockies

2011 Record:  73-89 (4^th)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 1^st place

Key Additions: C Ramon Hernandez, RF Michael Cuddyer, 2B Marco Scutaro, 3B Casey Blake, SP Jeremy Guthrie, RP Josh Outman

Key Losses: RF Seth Smith, 2B Mark Ellis, SP Jason Hammel, SP Aaron Cook, SP Kevin Millwood, RP Huston Street 

Los Angeles Dodgers

2011 Record: 82-79 (3^rd)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 3^rd place

Key Additions: 2B Mark Ellis, SP Aaron Harang, SP Chis Capuano, RP Todd Coffey

Key Losses: C Rod Barajas, SP Jon Garland, RP Jonathan Broxton, SP Hiroki Kuroda 

San Diego Padres

2011 Record: 71-91 (5^th)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 4^th place

Key Additions: 1B Yonder Alonso, LF Carlos Quentin, SP Edinson Volquez, RP Huston Street

Key Losses: SP Mat Latos, SP Aaron Harang, RP Heath Bell, C John Baker 

San Francisco Giants

2011 Record:  86-76 (2^nd)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 2^nd place

Key Additions: LF Melky Cabrera, SS Ryan Theriot

Key Losses: OF Pat Burrell, OF Carlos Beltran, SS Orlando Cabrera, OF Cody Ross, SP Jonathan Sanchez 

Predicted standings:

Arizona (88-92 wins)

Colorado (81-84 wins)

San Diego (80-83 wins)

San Francisco (74-78 wins)

Los Angeles (70-74 wins) 

Division Analysis: Starting at the bottom…the Dodgers have Kemp and Kershaw…and a whole lot of mediocre-or-worse players. Losing Kuroda really weakens the rotation, and I don’t see how they can score enough runs to compete even in this relatively weak division.

I think this is the year the Giants really tumble – the outfield is a disaster, their entire offense is predicated on Posey staying healthy and Sandoval hitting .320, and even at that they will be one of the three worst offenses in the NL. Their only path to a good season relies on the continued excellence and durability of their rotation, and sooner or later one of those guys is going to get hurt or have a bad year (more likely both). This team has NO margin for error, and I expect a bit of a crash in 2012.

San Diego played over their heads in 2010 but played below their numbers in 2011 – teams outscored by 18 runs typically are within a few games of .500, not 90-game losers. The loss of Latos hurts, but if Volquez is even marginally effective this team will pitch plenty well (aided by their cavernous park, of course). Alonso and Quentin are the key for this team – if both meet expectations, they provide a jolt of much-needed power to the lineup and make the Padres a dangerous team again. I look for the Padres to fight all season to stay around the .500 mark.

Colorado made wholesale changes to both the lineup and rotation – and they still have two fine offensive weapons in Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, along with a decent supporting cast – but I don’t like their rotation AT ALL, and given their home park I expect this to be the worst pitching staff in the game this season. If the young pitching develops this could be a team to watch in 2013, though.

I’m still not entirely sold on the Diamondbacks, because as I said last spring about San Diego, teams that come out of nowhere tend to regress the following season. However, the Dbacks acted aggressively this winter to improve the team, buying low on Cahill and signing Kubel to give them envious depth in the OF. I expect SOME regression, but the truth is that this division is likely the weakest in the game…and 90 wins will almost certainly claim it. Arizona has the starters and the offense to be the favorites this season. 

AL WEST 

Los Angeles Angels

2011 Record:  86-76 (2^nd)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 3^rd place

Key Additions: 1B Albert Pujols, SP CJ Wilson

Key Losses: SP Joel Piniero 

Oakland A’s

2011 Record: 74-88 (3^rd)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 2^nd place

Key Additions: RF Seth Smith, SP Bartolo Colon, DH Manny Ramirez, OF Yoenis Cespedes

Key Losses: SP Trevor Cahill, OF David DeJesus, DH Hideki Matsui, OF Josh Willingham 

Seattle Mariners

2011 Record: 67-95 (4^th)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 4^th place

Key Additions: C/DH Jesus Montero, C John Jaso, RP George Sherrill, SP Hishashi Iwakuma

Key Losses: 2B Adam Kennedy, RP David Aardsma, SP Michael Pineda 

Texas Rangers

2011 Record: 96-66 (1^st)

Last year’s Glass Eye Prediction: 1^st place

Key Additions: RP Joe Nathan, SP Yu Darvish

Key Losses: SP CJ Wilson 

Predicted Standings:

Texas Rangers (90-92 wins)

Anaheim Angels (88-91 wins)

Oakland A’s (78-81 wins)

Seattle Mariners (64-68 wins) 

Division Analysis: Again starting at the bottom…I said last year that the Mariners offense would get better in 2011 if only because it couldn’t get any worse…and I was right, they improved by 50 runs, but that still left them as the worst offense in the AL by FAR. The addition of Montero will help, but giving up Pineda is a huge blow to the rotation – unless Montero becomes a star-caliber hitter, this is a deal the Mariners may regret for years. Overall, there is still not nearly enough offense to compete, the rotation is full of question marks after Felix Hernandez, and Seattle is more likely to lose 100 games than to finish above .500.

Oakland is a team seemingly always in transition…their offense looks a lot different with Willingham and DeJesus gone, and Cespedes is still an unknown quantity in CF. The left side of the infield is manned by players I literally have never heard of, the rotation is patchwork after Brandon McCarthy…the only true strength of the team is the back of the bullpen with Balfour and Fuentes. The A’s were a mediocre team a year ago and I see little reason to expect a massive jump this season – they might flirt with .500 if some of the hitters pan out, but in this suddenly top-heavy division I think that’s about the best Oakland can expect.

The Angels definitely won the offseason, picking up Albert Pujols AND C.J. Wilson – the latter move having the benefit of weakening their main rival while strengthening an already formidable Angels’ rotation. They also boast one of the game’s top prospects in OF Mike Trout – the problem is, there’s no spot for Trout at the moment due to the crippling financial commitments the team has to Torii Hunter and (especially) Vernon Wells. Even with Pujols in the fold, this does not project to be a great offense by any means – but they should definitely score more runs than they did in 2011, especially if they eventually bench Wells and let Trout play. They ranked 11th out of 14 in on-base percentage a year ago – to win the division, they need to at least get into the top five or six in that category.

The rotation is easily the best in the division and assuming Ervin Santana doesn’t regress to his 2010 form, they have a case as the best rotation in the AL. Weaver and Haren are fantastic, and given Texas’ hitter-friendly ballpark, you can make a case that Wilson was better than either of them a year ago. The rotation alone makes the Angels a threat to win 85+ games – let’s face it, the pitching carried this team a year ago, their offense was well below average – and if Pujols doesn’t enter a steep decline and some of the younger bats perform to their expectations, this team has a very real shot to win the division. I’m picking them second only because I still question their offense – I doubt they will have the guts to bench Wells and his huge contract, and his terrible bat will cost them several wins – and because I think Texas made some savvy moves to counter the loss of Wilson.

Speaking of the Rangers…yes, they lost their ace, but they had a plan for that – they figure they have an ace-in-waiting in closer Neftali Perez, who was a starter his entire minor league career. Perez’ stuff is better than anyone Texas could acquire, and if he successfully re-acclimates to starting then Texas still has enough starting pitching to compete for this division. But the Rangers didn’t stop there – they made a bold move to sign Japanese ace Yu Darvish, and if he approaches his potential this rotation could be even better than last season. The bullpen is deep and talented, and even if Joe Nathan isn’t at his best there are other options to close out games.

The third-best offense in the game returns intact, and while it’s not a young group by any means I don’t see too many candidates for a steep decline aside from Michael Young. If Josh Hamilton can stay healthy (admittedly a BIG if), the offense should be as good as last season – but I do think the bats will take a minor step back this season, due in part to age and in part to injury.

Overall this Texas team should not be quite as good as the 2011 squad – but they should be plenty good enough to compete for the division. Anaheim is much-improved and this battle will likely come down to which team suffers a key injury or two – but on paper I like the Rangers to JUUUUST squeak by the Angels. However, the Angels might be good enough (and the AL East runnerup poor enough) that the wildcard may well come out of the West this year – something to keep an eye on. 

Next week, we’ll review the AL and NL East divisions. Sneak preview – I’m not very high on the Phillies or the Red Sox – more to come! 

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.