At last, the Big Game is upon us, and as usual the playoffs didn’t go according to plan – we end up with a 9-7 Giants team facing a Patriots team with the NFL’s second worst defense (by yards allowed) – and yet this game promises to be close and exciting, largely because both QBs are Hall-of-Fame caliber. We’ll break down the QB matchup, take a look at some other key matchups, and predict a winner.

When these teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago (what, you hadn’t heard?), Tom Brady was well-established as a top-notch QB and a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer, but Eli Manning was regarded by many (including me) as an average QB who was gaining notoriety because of his name. Frankly I still believe that was a fair assessment at the time – before 2008 Manning never ended a season with a completion percentage higher than 57% or a QB rating higher than 77 (I’d consider anything below 80-85 to be sub-par in today’s NFL).

Something changed after that Super Bowl, though – four seasons later, Manning has passed for over 4,000 yards three straight years, his completion percentage has been above 60% each year, and while he still throws too many interceptions the number of INTs is down sharply from his first four seasons. In addition, with the demise of the Giants’ running game, Eli is the focal point of the entire offense – if he has a bad day, the Giants rarely can win – and he has risen to the occasion. His coaches and players have raved about Manning’s work ethic, preparation, and attention to detail; and I think this is a clear case of a player blessed with average physical skills maximizing his potential. Eli’s not the tallest, strongest, or most accurate QB, and he certainly isn’t a great runner, but he makes up for that with great preparation, pocket presence, and field vision.

Tom Brady is in many ways a more refined version of Eli – drafted in the sixth round, considered too small, too little arm strength to make it in the NFL, Brady has ALWAYS succeeded with great accuracy, preparation, and timing. Brady turns the ball over far less, but he’s also had a greater variety of weapons at his disposal most seasons. Either way, both have earned their place in this game and both will (rightfully) be their teams’ focal point, win or lose.

Some other keys to the game:

Turnovers: I say it every week, and it’s as true Sunday as ever…the team that wins the turnover battle is a HUGE favorite to win the game. HOWEVER, this is more important for the Giants than it is for the Patriots – with their win over the 49ers, the Giants are 12-1 when they win or tie the turnover battle this year, and 3-0 in the playoffs, but are 0-6 when they ‘out-turnover’ their opponents. Interestingly, the Patriots have had six games where they have turned the ball over more times than their opponent, but they have won four of those including both of their playoff games.

Running game: Neither team defends the run well at all – New England allowed 100+ rushing yards to both the Ravens and Broncos, and allowed 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season. The Giants have been no better, allowing 4.5 per carry during the season; and after doing an amazing job shutting the Falcons down, they have allowed 147 and 150 rushing yards in their last two playoff games. On the other hand, the Giants’ offense reverted to form after that Atlanta game, rushing for a TOTAL of 180 yards in their last two games, while the Patriots piled up 242 against the Ravens and Broncos. We know that Brady can win without a great running game, and we’ve seen this year that Eli can as well – but strange as it sounds, I trust the Pats’ running game a lot more than I trust the Giants. New York was the worst rushing team during the regular season, and while they should have some more success against the Pats’ vulnerable front seven, I don’t see them dictating the pace of the game on the ground. New England is an underrated rushing team, and I look for them to have the advantage in this area.

Injuries (specifically Gronkowski): The big questions are if New England TE Rob Gronkowski can play with a high-ankle sprain, and if so, how effective will he be? I believe he will play but not nearly at 100% – see how Ben Roethlisberger was hampered by a similar injury – and that will clearly hamper New England, as Gronkowski had one of the best, if not THE best season, by a TE ever.

Having said that, I hear talk that New England won’t be able to score without Gronkowski playing well, and I don’t buy it. Bill Belichick has won three Super Bowls without having a dominant receiving option, and Aaron Hernandez is still available as a top TE for the Pats. In addition, while they’ve played fairly well over the past month, the Giants’ safeties and corners were not very good for most of the season and I look for Brady and Belichick to expose weaknesses in the deep secondary. They won’t be as explosive as normal, but the Pats will put up 24-30 points on an overrated Giants’ defense.

Interestingly, there are few other injuries of note – the Giants seemed to have used their injury quota up on season-ending cornerback injuries in August.

Key matchup: Pats’ O-line vs. Giants’ pass rush. The only thing the Giants truly do well on defense is rush the passer, and conversely the Pats’ offense is really only stymied when Brady gets hit a lot. If Umenyiora, Tuck, and company can get to Brady early and often, they can turn this into a replay of 2008 and give themselves a shot in the end. If Brady is able to sit back and make his reads, New England could win by 14.

Final Analysis: the line is Pats by 2.5, and that seems about right – this game should be close. I will be rooting for the Giants, but I cannot escape the idea that Brady is due for a HUGE game on the big stage – he hasn’t won a Super Bowl in eight years, he knows the window might be closing; I expect he will have a big day. Eli will make some plays, but not quite enough – PATS 27, GIANTS 23.

Enjoy the game!

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

Last week, while previewing the NFL conference Championships, I noted how little the regular season seems to mean these days in pro sports, and said I’d be writing a column soon about the phenomenon. So let’s take a look at some of the major differences between champion teams of 30-50 years ago, and champions of today.

First, the raw numbers:

In baseball, I’m treating each league separately since interleague schedules are unbalanced and a very small percentage of the schedule. Since the postseason expanded from four to eight teams there have been 17 seasons. The team with the best record in the AL has made it to the world series seven out of 17 times, and in the NL only four of 17 times – combined 11 out of 34 times (32%), or only slightly better than randomly choosing one of the four playoff teams from each league to advance (25%). In the past 10 years only two of 10 NL teams has made the World Series with the best record, while four of 10 AL teams have made it (combined 6/20 or 30%).

In the NFL, since the league added an extra playoff team in 1990 there have been 22 playoff seasons. In 14 of those seasons the #1 NFC seed made the Super Bowl, 10 times the AFC #1 made it. The top overall record has appeared in half of those Super Bowls, winning seven (31%). Of note, however, is the dramatic difference in the NFL in the last ten years…from 1990-2002 the top NFC seed made the Super Bowl 10 of 13 years, and the AFC top seed got there seven of 13 times – and the team with the best overall record won six of 13 Super Bowls in that time frame. However, only twice since 2003 has the team with the best overall record made the Super Bowl, and they haven’t won it since ’03. From 2004-2011 the #1 AFC and NFC seeds have each made the Super Bowl in only four of nine seasons – clearly something has changed in the NFL, and we’ll look as possible explanations below.

In the NHL, there are 16 teams invited to the playoffs (and that’s been true since 1980), and there is considerable cross-conference play so we’ll look at the top overall records from each year (That team is awarded the President’s Trophy). Since 1990, only five of 21 President’s Trophy winners have also won the Stanley Cup, and only one in the past nine years (Detroit in 2008).

In the NBA, there are also 16 teams invited every season and quite a bit of cross-conference play, so again we’ll examine the best overall record – since 1990, eight of 21 teams with the best record have won the NBA title – but again, we see a dramatic shift over the past decade, as only one of the past eight #1 teams (the 2008 Celtics) has earned a championship, and two of the past 11.

To summarize, in the past decade only six out of 30 top overall seeds have won titles in the NHL, NBA, and NFL, while only six out of 20 top AL and NL teams have made the World Series in baseball – and in each sport, those numbers are WAY down from even the previous 10 years. What has changed?

#1: SALARY CAP – In the NFL, NHL, and NBA, the cap has been the great equalizer. The NFL got a cap starting in the early 1990’s; but theirs was the first, and savvy GMs learned that system’s loopholes and kept an advantage over the rest of the league for much of the decade. By the time the NBA and NHL implemented their caps, their general managers had watched and learned from the NFL  – and thus there were fewer inefficiencies to exploit. The days of the Red Wings, Rangers, Lakers, or Cowboys simply spending the rest of the league into oblivion disappeared, and with it went a sizable part of their advantage. Now, those teams have all managed to keep winning because of strong talent evaluation and front-office leadership, but their advantage is not nearly as great as it was 20 years ago.

#2: Free Agency – Yes, free agency has been around a long time in all of these sports, but again it took GMs awhile to figure out how to properly compensate free agents – and in many ways they still are making ‘buy now, pay later’ decisions – the Pujols and Fielder contracts being prime examples. Big-money teams making big-money mistakes in the capped sports has really leveled the playing field and forced every team to concentrate more on drafting and developing their own star players from the start. Baseball might be the exception here – free agency has helped out the ‘big dogs’ of the sport far more than it has helped the smaller teams – but the current system does guarantee every team the first six years of a player’s career, which generally includes a player’s best seasons.

#3: Statistical Analysis — About a decade ago, the most savvy teams in baseball realized that they were missing a lot of opportunities to acquire talent ‘on the cheap’ by figuring out where the scouting world’s collective blind spot was and taking advantage of it (at that time, it was scouts’ lack of appreciation for on-base percentage, as detailed in ‘Moneyball’). This led to something of a battle between the scouting community and the new analysts brought in to challenge the old ways. In time, this led to an approach that is now favored by almost every front office in baseball (and the other major sports): the use of BOTH scouting expertise AND statistical analysis in tandem to evaluate players. While there still are (and probably always will be) ‘busted prospects’ in all sports, this new approach has made sure that a lot of players who would otherwise never have gotten a shot now get their chance – and in my opinion, that has raised the level of play for the lower-tier teams, especially in baseball.

Now let’s talk about some causes specific to each sport (except the NBA, as I really don’t follow it enough to opine on its changes) –

NHL:  Go to youtube and find a clip of a game from 20-25 years ago. Any game, doesn’t matter…then watch a similar clip from any game played this season. There’s a HUGE difference in both the pace of play and the skill of the goaltenders (and the size of goalie equipment, but that’s not really relevant to this discussion). Back in Mario’s prime, he might take a 2-minute shift, coasting for much of it and hanging out near the top of the defensive zone looking for a breakout pass. Forwards rarely blocked shots, especially top-liners, and plenty of goals were scored on one-timers and hard wrist shots from more than 15 feet away.

Today, the pace is so fast and defense is so important that a 45 second shift is standard, anything over a minute is too long (except for power play time), EVERYONE blocks shots, and most goals are scored with traffic in front of the goalie or on second-chance opportunities…if a goalie can see and square up to a shot, even the hardest slap shot in the game, he will stop it 99 times out of 100 these days. Depth is more important than ever in the NHL, as teams can rarely, if ever, win with only one scoring line anymore – plus the sheer volume of blocked shots has led to many more foot/leg injuries, which also tests the depth chart, and it’s easy to see why the gap between top teams and poor teams has shrunk.

Another overlooked factor is the NHL’s point system. In the ‘old days’ every game was worth two points – a team earned two for a win, one for a tie, and zero for any type of loss. Today, with the 4-on-4 overtime, shootouts, and no possible ties, the NHL awards a point for any game lost after regulation – meaning many games award three total points while others award two. This has had the effect of compacting the standings. In the modern NHL it’s very rare to see more than a 10 or 15 point gap from the top playoff team to the lowest playoff qualifier.

Finally, the NHL’s postseason is the toughest in all of sports – four rounds, each seven games, which for the winner means an extra two months of injuries and general physical attrition. Consider that the gap between the best and worst teams is at an all-time low due to the cap, need for depth, and speed of the game – then consider that to win the Cup, a team has to beat four opponents, usually in increasing order of difficulty – it’s no wonder that more often than not, the best regular-season team falls short.

NFL: I see three trends developing over the past ten years. First, while there’s still a wide gap between good teams and bad teams – see the Lions before 2010 or the Rams this year if you don’t believe that there are still really bad teams – the gap between good teams and really good/great teams seems to be smaller than ever.  20 years ago, generally the teams that went 13-3 or better were really a cut above the group of teams with records between 9-7 and 11-5, and it was REALLY an upset if the lower seed won, especially on the road. These days, the margin between win and loss when two good teams play is razor-thin, and a couple of bad breaks can make all the difference.

The second trend correlates somewhat with the first, and I cannot tell which begets the other – home field advantage in the NFL isn’t what it used to be. Green Bay went 13-0 at home in the postseason from 1960 through 2002 – they are 1-3 since. The top two seeds in each conference used to be nearly a lock to win their first playoff game, having both home field and the bye, but this advantage has waned over the last decade, and home field means almost nothing in the AFC/NFC Championship rounds. Think of last week’s games – we were a dropped pass and a shanked FG away from both home teams losing, but we were also two kick-return errors by the 49ers from both home teams advancing. In both games, I could not discern any noticeable home field advantage, the games were determined by on-field mistakes.

The third trend is a little tougher to prove, especially with the likes of Brady and Manning making the Super Bowl fresh off a combined 10,000 yards passing – but I still believe the pass-wacky trend in the NFL is causing separation between regular-season success and postseason acumen. For the first three months of the season, weather is almost never a factor and teams can throw the ball with ease – and year after year, they do so with more frequency. Once we get into late December and January, however, the snow/rain/wind all play havoc with passing offenses, and teams need to run the ball to win. Even the pass-happy Patriots turned heavily to the ground game a week ago to beat the Ravens. Dome teams that are forced outside for the postseason have a dreadful record, more evidence that a pass-first approach is very unreliable if weather conditions do not cooperate. In the end, I think the passing will fade a little as the top teams try to establish a more balanced offense, if for no other reason than to prepare for January football.

MLB: Unlike the sports listed above, a single game of baseball is not very deterministic…in other words, the best team will not beat the worst team nearly as often as in other sports. Think about football – if the Steelers played the Rams 10 times, how many would the Rams win? Once, twice at most? Hockey is a little more like baseball, but if you put the Red Wings up against Edmonton I’d say Detroit will win 7-8 out of 10 meetings. In baseball, things work differently. We see last-place teams sweep good teams several times each year. Over the short term, literally any result is plausible in baseball; the truly great teams are revealed only over the long haul. Is it any wonder then that as baseball has expanded its playoff system that more surprises have occurred? The best-of-five first round is especially problematic – the shorter the series, the more chance for something really fluky to occur, and we’ve seen plenty of good teams knocked out early since this system debuted in 1995.

Another factor is off days – during the regular season, off days are few and far between, and teams must have deep benches, rotations, and bullpens to succeed over six months. In the playoffs, with at least two off-days each round each team gets to pare off their worst starter, generally exclude the worst half of their bullpens and benches, and get extra mileage out of their top tier pitchers. The addition of the wildcard and the extra round of playoffs has allowed teams that are deeply flawed but have an ace pitcher or two to get past a superior team in a 5-game series, using the off days to their advantage.

Finally, every playoff round added is more chance for the favored team to lose. Until 1969 the World Series was the ONLY postseason, so we knew the top team from each league would square off. Then the leagues split into divisions and the LCS’s were added – in 1995 the wildcard and a third division were added, and now the commissioner is talking about adding yet another wild-card team. These moves make sense from an ownership perspective, because it keeps fans of mediocre teams interested later into the season – but they also continue to devalue the regular season, as there is less and less motivation for true greatness. Like they say in poker, all you need is ‘a chip and a chair’ to have a chance to win – in recent history teams with records barely above .500 have become World Series champs because of this.

I’m not here to judge the relative merits of this situation – I have no doubt that the current system has driven far more interest in baseball than the 1969 system did, and that’s undeniably a good thing for the game – but I have always loved the fact that baseball’s regular season mattered so much more than other sports, that there was truly a premium on being the best team over a long stretch of time rather than ‘getting hot’ at the right moment. Those days are gone, likely never to return.

I’ll leave you with this uncomfortable fact – in a short series (or single game playoffs such as the NFL), random luck plays a far greater role than it does over the length of a season. The Saints had not turned the ball over five times all season long until they played the 49ers – does that particular game define their season, or was it just a bad time to have some bad luck? The Cardinals were mediocre to bad for 75% of the baseball season a year ago, needed a rather amazing series of events to occur just to make the playoffs – then proceeded to go on a tear and win the World Series, again with some spectacular displays in the final games. Credit them with turning it around, of course, but did they REALLY have a better season than the 102-win Phillies, who were more or less the class of the league all summer?

We have made the determination, as a sporting society, to determine greatness based on postseason success as opposed to regular-season consistency. It’s more exciting, less predictable, and just plain fun, and I get as caught up in it as anyone else. Just remember, the team that ends up taking the trophy wasn’t necessarily the best team that year – they were simply the best team that day.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

Wow, what an amazing round of playoff games last week! Except for the Broncos-Patriots stinker, every game was chock-full of surprises and turning points. Defense seemed to trump offense in most cases, as the high-flying Saints and Packers were sent home; while defensively stout Baltimore and San Francisco soldier on. If the last round proved anything, it’s that literally anything can happen in the NFL, especially when teams start turning the ball over – but having said that, let’s take a look inside each matchup.

Ravens at Patriots: I expected both teams to win, but each surprised me in different ways. The Patriots had a far easier time with the Broncos than I had expected – although having played them only a month before was clearly to New England’s benefit, as they were able to make key adjustments that Denver seemed to have no answer for. Tom Brady looked great, and his two-headed monster at tight end (Gronkowski/Hernandez) dominated the game. Their defense looked the best they have all season as well, a positive sign for the Pats this week.

On the other hand, Baltimore parlayed two early turnovers into a 17-3 first-quarter lead, then did nothing on offense the rest of the game  – and actually came within a play of losing to a third string rookie QB who threw three picks. Now, I give the Houston defense all kinds of credit, they shut down the running game and applied a lot of pressure on QB Joe Flacco – but still, Baltimore HAS to be concerned about their offense right now. Defensively, the Ravens also were less than dominant – Arian Foster wore them out with almost 140 yards rushing (despite Baltimore expecting a heavy run game from the Texans), and had Houston been able to start Matt Schaub, it’s likely that the Texans would have won that game handily.

Offensively, New England doesn’t have a punishing ground game, but I think they will try to establish SOME momentum on the ground and look to keep the Baltimore safeties honest and out of pure passing situations. This will set up the Pats’ great tight ends in situations against Baltimore’s linebackers in coverage – a matchup that does not favor the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense is still hard-hitting and tough, but Ray Lewis has lost a step or two and the outside LBs do not excel in pass coverage. The good news for Baltimore is that the Pats’ wideouts are not fast, so Baltimore can probably play man-to-man with their above-average cornerbacks on the WRs and give safety attention to the tight ends. Even at that, only Pittsburgh managed to keep New England under 20 points this season and only three other teams kept them under 30 – so look for the Pats to get at least 25 points this weekend.

When Baltimore has the ball, look for New England to try to stop Ray Rice (much as the Texans did) and force Joe Flacco to win the game. I remain a Flacco skeptic – he’s certainly not a TERRIBLE QB, but the consistency is certainly lacking, and he still gets that ‘shellshocked’ look on his face too often in big moments. His own safety, Ed Reed, said this week that he thought the Texans ‘rattled’ Flacco, and when the hapless Jaguars beat the Ravens earlier this year Flacco appeared rattled as well. Any QB can have a bad game – that happens – but a very good/great QB will have a lot more top performances than terrible ones, and thus far Flacco hasn’t had that big game under the harsh glare of the postseason spotlight.

New England’s defense had a fine game against Tebow, but they still are very susceptible to the pass and Flacco definitely has the weapons at wide receiver to have a big game. I predict that he will need to throw for 280+ yards to win this week, and with one INT or fewer.

I know last week defenses ruled the roost, and I know that New England’s defense is still suspect…but I look at this matchup and at the core, I see Brady at home (8-1 this season) vs. Flacco on the road (4-4 this season). Baltimore can win if they force a bunch of sacks and turnovers, but I think the Pats will prevail, and by double digits. PATS by TEN.

Giants at 49ers: These two teams played this season already, a 27-20 win by San Francisco at home on Nov. 13 – and in most cases I’d lean on that result pretty heavily when trying to figure out this week’s contest. In this case, while I perused the stats to see what worked for each team, I’m tempted to not consider that game at all – because the Giants have been so unpredictable most of the season. New York went into that game 6-2, proceeded to lost five of their next six before their current four game winning streak (as an aside,  teams like this year’s Giants have become so common that I plan to discuss the issue further in next week’s column). When looking at the Giants’ schizophrenic season, there’s one constant among their wins: turnovers. When the Giants force more turnovers than they allow, they are 8-1. Then they allow more than they force, they are 0-5. They are 3-1 when each team commits the same number of turnovers, so the Giants are 11-1 this season when they win or tie the turnover battle. Yes, turnovers are key for any NFL team and yes, there are other factors at play with the Giants, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the Giants HAVE to protect the ball this week to win.

The 49ers also are reliant on turnovers – their offense is 26th in yards but 11th in points this season, and the reason they were able to score is that their defense gave them the ball in favorable situations all year long. San Francisco won the turnover battle in 15 of their 17 games this season, an incredible stat – and they went 13-2 in those games. The 49ers have not committed more than two turnovers in any game this season, a big factor in their success. Their ability to protect the ball is key, because their offense lacks playmakers – aside from TE Vernon Davis, they have no game-changing passing weapons and their wideouts are far easier to cover than Green Bay’s group. They do run the ball effectively and often, and the Giants have struggled to defend the run much of the season (although they held the 49ers to 77 rushing yards in November). I look for a heavy dose of RB Frank Gore early in the game, to draw in the safeties and linebackers – with more play-action passing to Davis from the second quarter on.

The Giants’ running game has experienced a total reversal in the playoffs, but the 49ers are tough for ANY team to run against, and I expect them to struggle this week. The pressure will be on Eli Manning to win or lose this game through the air, and that’s a favorable matchup – the Giants passed for 300 yards against SF in November, and the Saints torched the Niners for 435 passing yards last week. I expect at least 40 passes from Manning this week.

San Francisco is not a high-scoring team, but the Saints were the first team to score 30+ against them. I look for this game to be very low-scoring, and it will almost certainly be determined by a key turnover. This is more or less a coin-flip game, and while the Niners have been consistent the Giants have been anything but throughout the season. I usually take the best QB in close games like this, but between home-field advantage, their tenacious defense, and their ability to win the turnover battle all season I’m forced to go with the Niners. SAN FRANCISCO by a field goal.

Next week, we’ll look at the devaluation of the regular season over the past 20 years on all major sports.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

The Eye went 2-2 a week ago, correctly pegging the Saturday winners but missing badly on both Sunday games. A quick note about the Steeler game before we move on: if you give up 316 yards to Tim Tebow, your pass defense is not good and I don’t care what its regular season ranking was. The Steelers need to reassess a lot of things on that side of the ball going into 2012. We’ll talk more about Pittsburgh later this year, let’s focus on the teams left in the dance, starting with the game in New England

Broncos at Patriots: These two teams matched up a few weeks ago in Mile High and while the Pats eventually pulled away, the Broncos torched the New England defense for most of the first half and only some poor fumble luck kept that game from being close. The Pats have one of the worst pass defenses in the league this season – part of that is teams passing a lot to keep up with New England’s prolific offense; but when you’re allowing 400 yards+ to the Colts, Bills, and Dolphins – and nine times overall – I think it’s safe to say your defense isn’t that strong. Lest you think the problems are all against the pass, the strong rushing teams also had success against New England – for example, Denver rushed for over 250 yards when they played last month. The only thing the Pats defense did well was force turnovers – 34 in all, and at least one in 15 of 16 games.

The Denver offense is by now something of a known quantity – they want to run a lot, they cannot complete intermediate passes at all, but Tebow showed great touch on the deep ball a week ago, and that was enough to beat Pittsburgh. My guess is that New England will take away the deep pass, give up the middle –in routes that Tebow struggles with, and take their chances with the running game. Denver will likely score 20-28 points against that defense, but New England doesn’t care, they only held four teams under 20 points anyway. New England will play bend-don’t-break, give up yards, and look for turnovers.

Offensively, the Pats are explosive – they gained 400+ yards and scored 30+ points 12 times, and only Pittsburgh held them below 300 yards and 20 points. Tom Brady threw for over 5,000 yards, Wes Welker caught a ridiculous 122 passes, and Rob Gronkowski had the best season of any tight end in history. The only way Denver will stop this offense is to force turnovers or hope Brady gets hurt – both are remote hopes at best, and the Pats only committed 17 turnovers (although 12 came in three games) and Brady has proven to be extremely durable.

I think this game will be closer than many expect – New England will not play well on defense, which will allow Denver to control the clock and score some points. However, I think Denver’s defense is overmatched against the Pats’ offense, and if the Patriots build a significant lead all of Tebow’s flaws will become apparent. New England pulls away in the fourth quarter, PATS BY 10. 

Saints at 49ers: Last week I detailed how dominant New Orleans was this season at home, and after a slow start they completely dominated the second half of last week’s game. I was about to research the relative merits of New Orleans on the road vs. at home, but Grantland’s Bill Barnwell did such a good job, I’m going to link to his fine article and quote from it (read the whole thing if you have time, it’s excellent as usual). The relevant stats he found: New Orleans scores 41 points per game at home, but just over 27 on the road…while the 49ers scored just under 20 per game on the road, but averaged 27.6 at home. In addition, the 49ers finished #2 in points allowed and #1 (by far) against the run – they didn’t allow a single rushing touchdown until the last two weeks of the season. This team is built like the 90’s Steelers – ferocious defense, good running game, caretaker QB, don’t turn the ball over and they win. In years past I’ve often held to the axiom that defense wins championships, and I would have tried to make a case for the 49ers in this game. Well, I’m definitely picking the Saints, and let me list a few reasons why:

#1, the Saints didn’t just lead the NFL in offense, they did so by over 600 yards – and third place Green Bay was 1000 yards back. To put this in perspective, 15^th-place Baltimore was closer to Green Bay’s yardage total than Green Bay (a top offense in their own right) was to New Orleans.  This is a historically great offense when it comes to moving the ball – they’ve gained over 400 yards in 14 of 17 games, over 500 in six games, and over 600 in two (and those are their last two games)!

#2, San Francisco’s other secret weapon is turnovers – they were second in the league in forced turnovers and #1 in turnover differential. The problem is, turnovers are essentially random – especially fumbles. I have no doubt that they will force a turnover this weekend, but the 49ers only turned the ball over 10 times all season, none in their last five games. Those are unsustainable statistics, and the only real question is when will this ‘luck’ even out. San Francisco HAS to win the turnover battle against New Orleans to have a chance in this game, and I believe they will struggle to do so.

#3, Let’s assume that San Francisco totally frustrates the Saints offense and holds them to their season-low in points…that would be 20, no one has held New Orleans below that mark. Seven times this season, San Francisco failed to score more than 20 points, and if you throw away their 48-point outburst against the hapless Bucs their season high was 34. In addition, the 49ers never passed for 300 yards in a game, and were held under 200 yards TEN times. Alex Smith did a fine job taking care of the football, with only five interceptions, but he made very few big plays for the team – and I believe that to win this game, Smith will have to have the game of his life. You beat a team like New Orleans by creating turnovers, frustrating them…but also by scoring enough to keep up; it’s folly to assume New Orleans won’t score 24-30 points in this game and I’m not at all confident that San Francisco’s QB is up to the challenge.

In short, I like everything about the 49er defense, and I admit that the Saints’ ‘D’ has significant flaws…I just don’t think that Alex Smith is a good enough QB to exploit the situation, and I think he will make at least two big mistakes and watch New Orleans pull away. SAINTS BY 14.

Texans at Ravens: There isn’t a whole lot to say about this game…both teams have good running games; both defenses are among the best in the league, particularly against the run; both have a lot of weapons in the passing game, but have QBs who are mediocre at best. The Ravens put a beating on the Texans in October, even though they turned the ball over twice and Houston didn’t commit any turnovers. The Texans were missing Andre Johnson in that game, whereas now they are missing QB Matt Schaub, so I think it’s fair to say that in each case the offense is at less than 100% for Houston. The Texans will try their best to pound away in the running game, control the clock, shut down Ray Rice and force Joe Flacco to beat them. The Ravens will have the exact same game plan.

The difference in the game is that while I’m no great fan of Joe Flacco, he certainly has big-game experience and won’t be ‘in awe’ of the moment – while rookie TJ Yates may well have a major case of the jitters in his first road playoff game. In addition, while the Ravens were prone to laying eggs on the road, Baltimore was downright dominant at home 8-0, with wins over the Steelers, Texans, and 49ers. I hope I’m wrong – I’m rooting for the Texans in a big way this week – but I think the home field and Flacco’s edge over Yates will make the difference. Houston is a strong team and if they force a few key turnovers it might go the other way, but I think the Texans commit the key turnovers and LOSE BY 10.

Giants at Packers:  Everyone is playing up the comparison of the 2011 Giants to the 2007 Giants – shaky regular season, hot streak late, get on a roll and win at Green Bay in a big game. I don’t see the comparison as totally apt – that 2007 team REALLY played great defense the whole second half of the season, while the 2011 Giants have only played exceptional ‘D the last two or three weeks – but there’s no question that something has fundamentally changed about this Giants team. The worst rushing team in the NFL ran for 172 yards last week against a good Falcons run defense; a run defense that had been gouged repeatedly held Atlanta to 64 yards rushing; and after turning the ball over in eight straight games (and going 3-5 in those games), the Giants have won two do-or-die games while not turning the ball over at all.

We have another key data point – the Giants played the Packers at home a month ago and while Green Bay prevailed, the Giants gave the Pack their toughest test to date in a 38-35 loss. Green Bay returned an interception for a TD, which turned out to be the deciding score. Both teams passed the ball with ease in that game, and conversely both defenses struggled in all areas – there were only three combined sacks, the Giants ran for five yards per carry while the Packers had five different receivers make four plus catches.

As I look closely at Green Bay, the offense isn’t the question – the team was only held under 20 points once all season, and scored 30+ points 11 times. Much like the Saints, Rodgers will get his yards and the Packers will get their points. The weak point is the defense – they gave up HUGE yardage both on the ground (4.7 yards per carry) and through the air (4988 yards against). The saving grace for the defense was turnovers – they forced 38, tops in the league, and forced at least one in all but one game (not coincidentally, their only loss). As I’ve said before, though, turnovers can be VERY random, and counting on turnovers as your primary method of defensive stops is playing with fire.

Home field advantage counts for a lot – again, much like the Saints, Green Bay was much better at home (40 points per game) than on the road (30 PPG), and the bye week also will help, especially if WR Greg Jennings is now healthy enough to return. A month ago I’d have predicted a Green Bay blowout, but somehow, someway the Giants have become a different team in  January – the more apt comparison for the G-Men may actually be the 2008 Cardinals. I still think the home team will prevail, but I think it will be a very close game that could come down to whoever makes the fewest mistakes. Call it GREEN BAY BY 5.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

This week, the NFL’s postseason tournament gets underway – every game has a certain amount of intrigue, and we should see a healthy mix of defensive struggles and pass-wacky shootouts – but, with the possible exception of the Saints, every team playing this weekend has a large flaw and none is likely to make the Super Bowl. However, let’s look at each matchup and try to figure out who will win, starting with Saturday’s games.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at Houston Texans (10-6):  I feel really bad for the Texans and their fans – they get their first playoff appearance in team history, and after 10 games they appeared to be primed to finish 12-4 or 13-3 and secure a bye week. Then QB Matt Schaub went down for the season, his backup Matt Leinart followed suit the next week, and the Texans’ offense never scored more than 22 points the rest of the season.  The team comes into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak, with a rookie 3rd-string QB leading them, with their top WR less than 100%, and with two of their top defenders also gone for the season. However, their early success got them a game against another deeply flawed team, the Bengals – a team the Texans beat only four weeks ago on the road.

Even with all the injuries, the Texans have continued to play solid defense – they finished second overall in yards allowed (only 285 per game), third against the pass and fourth against the run. This does not bode well for the Bengals offense – among playoff teams, only the Steelers and Broncos scored less this season than Cincy, and they were held under 300 yards by Houston last month. Indeed, the Texans turned the ball over four times in that game and yet still won by rolling up over 400 yards of total offense! Speaking of offense, Tyler Yates threw for 300 yards against the Bengals, his best game as a pro – he doesn’t need to repeat that, but he DOES need to limit turnovers and be efficient. The Texans will get 120-150 yards rushing as usual, but Yates needs to make the Bengals pay when they load up to stop Arian Foster’s rushing attack.

Cincinnati is a very average team, both offensively and defensively – they scored about 20 points per game, they allowed about 18, gaining and allowing about 320 yards per game. They were adept at getting sacks, and that’s something they will have to continue if they are to beat Houston. Their running game was average at best, and not likely to be effective against the Texans’ stiff run defense. Rookie AJ Green is a tremendous wideout, but I expect the Texans to base their game plan around stopping him and forcing QB Andy Dalton to throw elsewhere.

I know a lot of folks are picking the Bengals in this game, and I think it will be extremely close – but in the end, you have two teams with rookie QBs, each has a great wideout, and both teams want to run the ball a lot. In situations like this I side with the best defense, and that belongs to Houston. Cincy couldn’t win this game at home last month even with four turnovers by Houston – seems to me to be a long shot that they’d win on the road now. HOUSTON by 5.

Detroit Lions (10-6) at New Orleans Saints(13-3): What a contrast between the two Saturday games – I fully expect a low-scoring slugfest in the early game, but in this game the winner might need 40 or even 50 points. Looking at Detroit first, two things jump out at me: First, until last week I had no clue how amazing Matthew Stafford’s season has been – he ended up with over 5000 yards and 41 TDs!! That’s one of the best seasons in NFL history, but it will always be overshadowed by Brees and Rodgers’ 2011 seasons. Many years Stafford would get significant MVP consideration, and frankly given Detroit’s numerous other flaws, I think one could argue that Stafford was more valuable to the Lions than Rodgers or Brees were to their teams. In any case, Stafford is CLEARLY the key to the Lions on offense,, as their running game is mediocre at best and his backups are awful – if he gets hurt (and I bring it up because he has an injury history), Detroit has no chance in this game.

The other thing one quickly notices when studying Detroit is that they beat up on bad teams but have trouble with good teams – the Lions went 9-1 against non-playoff teams, but 1-5 vs. playoff teams  – and the one win was against a poor Denver squad. More to the point, they lost at New Orleans a month ago by 14 points, and were down 24-7 at halftime – to have any chance in this game, they MUST start stronger. Detroit won four games with late comebacks,  but getting down 10+ points to this Saints team will likely be too much to overcome. Detroit’s defense is not good, either against the run (allowed five yards per carry) or  against the pass (3800 yards allowed) – they kept only four teams all season under 20, and allowed a total of 387 points – only Denver allowed more among playoff teams (I’m sensing a pattern regarding the Broncos, more on them below). In short, Detroit is EXTREMELY unlikely to hold New Orleans under 30 points, so all of the pressure is on their offense.

For the Saints, Brees had a season for the ages – over 5200 yards and 71% completion percentage, both new NFL records. Everyone knows about their passing, but the Saints also ranked sixth in the league with over 2100 yards rushing, and they averaged 4.9 yards per rush. The Saints went 5-1 against playoff teams, they went 8-0 at home, and they scored 40+ points six times (five at home). Aside from a 40-33 win over the Texans (the only game all season that Houston allowed 30+ points), New Orleans won every home game by at least 10 points and won five of those games by 17 or more. In short, at home New Orleans was the most dominant team in football, making the challenge for the Lions even more daunting.

 There are some chinks in the armor – despite playing indoors, New Orleans managed to lose to the Rams, arguably the worst team in football. They allowed over 4100 passing yards against and only intercepted nine passes – but I think that’s partially explained by teams having to constantly play from behind against the Saints. They also allowed five yards per rush just like Detroit, but I don’t think the Lions have the running game to take advantage of that.

To win this game the Lions have to force turnovers, hope that Brees is not on his ‘A’ game and hope Stafford can play as well this week as he did last week – I think it’s a bit too much to ask. The Lions are on the rise, but I think the 2011 ride ends in the Big Easy…SAINTS by at least 10 points.

Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at New York Giants(9-7) : I’m going to start with a shocker of a stat – the Giants, traditionally a run-first team, finished DEAD LAST in the league in rushing yardage – and it was no fluke, as they averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. More than ever, their offense was all about Eli Manning – Eli threw for almost 5,000 yards despite having no running game to support him, and led the team to the playoffs despite a porous defense that allowed 400 points – Eli seems more and more like Peyton every day, doesn’t he? The other big story on offense was WR Victor Cruz, who came out of nowhere to set a new franchise record for yardage.

 Defensively, the Giants give up a lot of yards both through the air (255 per game, fourth worst in the league) and on the ground (121 YPG, 19th). New York was outscored on the season, and the defense’s only real positives were sacks (48, tied for third) and turnovers (they forced 31). Forcing turnovers is not a repeatable skill, but the Giants will need to force a few this week to get by a solid Falcons team.

Atlanta’s defense was sixth best against the run, but 20th against the pass. Some of that might be inflated due to playing Brees and Newton twice, as well as Rodgers and Stafford, but the simple fact is that the Falcons are much more vulnerable through the air than on the ground – which plays right into what the Giants offense has become this season.

Offensively, Matt Ryan had a better season than you might have thought – he threw for 4100 yards and completed 61% of his passes, along with 29TDs – numbers quite similar to Eli. Atlanta also struggled more running the ball this season, as their 1800+ yards ranked them only 11th in the league, but I look for them to have some success on the ground against a soft Giant run defense.  The Giants’ secondary is wracked with injuries, and they will struggle to cover Roddy White and Julio Jones – look for big days from both receivers.

This should be a fairly high-scoring game, Manning tends to come up big in moments like these but the team around him just isn’t very good. If the Falcons can protect Ryan from the pass rush, I think he will light up the Giants’ secondary and lead the Falcons to a win on the road. FALCONS by seven.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at Denver Broncos(8-8):  Tebowmania has been talked about to death, so I’m not going to hit on that topic much – suffice it to say, if Denver has to throw it more than 20 times in this game or they are in serious trouble. They have the worst pass offense in the NFL and they are facing the best pass defense – yes, the Steelers allowed only 171 passing yards per game, by far the best in the league. On the other hand, the Broncos easily led the league in rushing attempts and yards, and Pittsburgh was unusually vulnerable to the run – they finished eighth in rushing yards against, but allowed four yards per carry, a very high total for them.

Denver’s game plan will stay the same as ever. They will look to run a lot, grind the clock and shorten the game, hopefully giving Tebow a shot to pull it out at the end. Given his inaccuracy and the stellar job done by the Steeler corners this season, I cannot imagine Tebow having much success through the air – the key matchup will be Pittsburgh’s run defense vs. Tebow and McGahee running the ball.

Offensively, the Steelers have moved the ball but have really struggled to score, especially lately – they scored 17 points or less in seven games, and scored more than 30 only three times. A team with this many weapons should be more efficient, and it’s on Ben Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians to make that happen this week. Against the Broncos, they cannot settle for field goals, they must find a way to punch it in. The Steelers were an effective rushing team this season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, but it remains to be seen how much the loss of Rashard Mendenhall will affect them. I say it won’t affect them much at all. I was not impressed with Mendenhall this season and thought that Redman ran the ball with a lot more ferocity most weeks. Denver’s defense was average against both the run and the pass, so there should be opportunities for the Steelers to move the ball.

This game is pretty simple – Denver is going to try to run the ball 50 times for 200 yards and have a 10-7 game in the 4th quarter. Pittsburgh is going to try to have a balanced attack, finish drives, and win the turnover battle. I cannot recall a one-dimensional rushing team ever beating a Dick LeBeau defense – if the Broncos are going to win, Tebow will have to play a lot better than he has the last three weeks. I think it will be closer than many expect – I don’t have much faith in Arians and the offense right now – but I also cannot see Denver scoring more than about 13 points, and the Steelers will get more than that. Call it STEELERS by SIX, with the real test coming next week.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

With the holiday season upon us, I thought it would be a good time to look at all of the ‘major’ local teams and see what the best gift would be for each team. From championship-level (Steelers) to awful (Pirates), from stable (Pens) to scandal-ridden (Penn State), right now Pennsylvania runs the gamut of sports experiences. Let’s look at what each team should ask Santa for this Christmas:

PIRATES: A shiny, brand-new owner with deep pockets and a desire to win. Let’s face it, the current ownership group has had plenty of time to show that they care more (or at least as much) about winning as they do about profit – and the cold hard facts indicate that with this crew, it has been and will always be profit first, winning second. They know they have a nice racket due to revenue sharing and publicly subsidized facilities, why jeopardize that revenue stream by spending a few million dollars while trying to (gasp) WIN?

As Mario Lemieux proved with the Pens and Terry Pegula (PSU alum) recently proved with the Buffalo Sabres, there ARE ownership candidates out there who want to win and will give the proper support to make it happen…let’s just hope someone makes a ‘Godfather’ offer to the Nuttings and they get out of the baseball business.

As a side note…the Pirates DO serve one very important purpose for Pittsburgh fans – they keep us humble and appreciative. The Pens have been a top franchise for six seasons, and were arguably the top franchise of the 90’s as well; the Steelers have had exactly ONE losing season in the last twelve, along with three Super Bowl appearances; PSU football has had one dry spell in the past 50 years (although I see some rough years ahead). It’s easy to get spoiled and come to expect greatness. The Pirates remind us for six months every summer that we should enjoy our great teams, because it can and will end.

PENGUINS: Sidney Crosby, symptom-free, with a more concussion-resistant helmet. As someone recently pointed out to me, today’s NHL helmets are more or less the same helmets they’ve been using for 20 years – yet the players are on average bigger, stronger, and faster than ever. Time for a better helmet, and former NHL player Mark Messier is spearheading an effort to build a better helmet. Yes, I’m sure if this initiative succeeds he will profit from it – so what? If Messier making a few more bucks leads to increased player safety, pay the man.

As for Sid, this latest setback is in many ways more alarming to me than the initial concussion, because the latest hit was so innocuous. If this is the level of contact Crosby can now withstand, I have grave concerns about not just his career, but his lifestyle. I think he and the Pens are taking the right steps and certainly he has the right to try to work through all this as long as he thinks it’s worth it – and I think most of us underestimate how ingrained a sport has to be for someone to play it at that level – but if his absence is prolonged and/or he suffers another concussion after this, I will not blame him one bit for choosing retirement. Let’s hope that I’m wrong about all that; and that he will return next week and lead the Pens to another Cup. You know I’ll be watching closely.

PENN STATE: Time, and the right leadership. Penn State is on the verge of choosing a new coach, and the word is that a lot of strong candidates are wary of the job because of the scandal hanging over the university. Hopefully, a coach with strong moral character and good PR skills will be found to help bring the university out of this situation. Time heals all wounds, and it will take a lot of time – years – before the specter of Sandusky finally is left behind. In the meantime, let’s hope that this leads to a thorough reevaluation of how the university conducts its business – good can come out of bad things, if those involved have the strength and courage to take a hard look at themselves and fix what went wrong.

PITT: A non-weasel head football coach. I wrote about this in my last column, but seriously, could Todd Graham have acted any more disgracefully last week? He was denied permission to interview elsewhere (understandable since he had served only one season of a multi-year contract),  yet left anyway – and TEXTED his departure to his players rather than arrange to meet with them face-to-face! Since letting Dave Wannstedt go in 2010, the university has botched two hires in less than a year. Time to put character at the top of the list of requirements…of course, had they done that, they probably would never have fired the classy Wannstedt. Sometimes winning really isn’t everything…success with honor should be the goal, one as important as the other.

STEELERS: Ah, the infamous quandary – what do you get the team that has everything? Seriously, it’s tough to find a glaring need for the Steelers, a team with great ownership, stable coaching, a rabid fan base, decades of success, and a roster with few holes.

I can’t think of a ‘WOW’ gift for the Steelers like I can for other teams, but they would benefit from a few stocking stuffers: a worthy successor to Dick LeBeau, who will almost certainly retire in the next two years; depth at safety, as both Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark are getting a little long in the tooth; a competent backup QB, because Ben on one foot is better than Batch or Dixon on two feet ; perhaps most importantly (and as usual), a real upgrade on the offensive line. The line is better than it was in years past, but there are still far too many obvious breakdowns and penalties.

Now, for you, my readers, I hope that you get the gift of a warm fire, a loving family, health, happiness, and a long life. Remember that our beloved sports are a diversion, not an obsession, remember that balance is the key to life, and enjoy every day. Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, and I’ll see you in 2012 as the Eye previews the NFL playoffs.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

Lots of topics to hit on this week, and most of them involve behaviors and/or decisions that border on the insane. There’s been a lot of crazy stuff going on around the sports world, crazy enough to get me to talk about the NBA and Pitt football! Let’s take a look at some of the major stories:

-Albert Pujols signs with the Angels for 10 years, $254 million – and a full no-trade clause. We’ll start with the least-crazy item…I think it was pretty well established that Pujols was going to get at least $20 million per year, and probably at least 7 or 8 years on this contract. I’m somewhat surprised that the annual value eclipsed $25 million, but for a short-term deal I’d have no issue with that – after all, even in his early 30’s Pujols is a great bet to remain a top-5 hitter. No, my problem is the length of the deal, and to a lesser extent giving the no-trade clause. Here’s the list of baseball hitters who in my judgment  were all-star-level performers past the age of 39: Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams. Note that none were first basemen, all (most notably Bonds) were better overall athletes than Pujols, and both batted left-handed. Small sample size, to be sure, and I admit that given his awesome drive it’s POSSIBLE that Pujols will retain effectiveness for ten years…but for that kind of money, is that a wise bet?

Keep in mind, he’s 32 in January (I’m dismissing all the rumors about his age). Think of all of the excellent hitters who were done by age 38….Griffey, Ruth, Aaron, Schmidt, Morgan, etc. etc. The smart money is on this contract being a serious drag on the Angels in years 7-10…of course they probably figure they’ll figure all that out later, for now they have the Great and Powerful Pujols. The no-trade clause seriously impedes their ability to do anything about it as well, however. I don’t blame Pujols, as I never blame a player who takes a contract for as much as he can get – the insanity here is the Angels seriously overpaying for the decline phase of Pujols’ career, a decline that I recently opined might be rather steep.

-Todd Graham bolts Pitt for Arizona State: Yes, coaches leave all the time, and while I think it’s shameful that coaches can do this with no penalty while players are forced to sit a year if they transfer, that’s a topic for another day. The story here, as Dejan Kovacevic so deftly stated, is Graham’s me-first attitude and total disregard for anyone around him – his players, his coaches, even Steve Pederson, his boss at Pitt. He trashed his own QB in the press all season, made excuses for the team’s poor play for about five weeks before finally accepting SOME responsibility, but he topped all of that this week. Word is that AD Pederson denied Graham permission to talk to ASU, but Graham defied that and left anyway – then TEXTED his players to tell them he was gone!!!

 I’m not a Pitt fan but I truly feel badly for their players and fans; no one deserves to be treated with so little respect. ASU, good luck – I’ll bet you find that Graham isn’t all you had hoped he would be.

-As the NHL deals with a large, alarming concussion epidemic, they continue to allow games to stop so players can bludgeon one another:  I wrote at length this spring about the NHL’s fighting problem, and while I won’t rehash all of that, simply put the league implicitly condones fighting, and has for almost its entire history. Over the past two decades, several high-profile players have had careers shortened due to concussions (Lindros, LaFontaine, and Savard come to mind), while stars like Crosby, Letang, Giroux, Pronger, and others are out now with concussions. The NHL has done good work in raising awareness of potential concussions and putting protocols in place to treat them properly, and while there’s still work to be done on the protocols I applaud the steps taken thus far – but the heightened league awareness stands in stark contrast to the league’s stance on fighting. Why is the league taking such drastic steps to try to curtail blows to the head, yet still allowing and even encouraging on-ice fights? This is inconsistent at best and barbaric at worst – this fine piece of journalism by the New York Times illustrates just how devastating hockey fights can be – not just for the combatants themselves, but for their families. Seriously, if you have ten minutes PLEASE read the Times’ series on the life and death of Derek Boogard, one of the premier NHL fighters over the past decade – who suddenly fell into drug abuse, died, of an overdose, and whose brain had been seriously damaged by fighting. The fact that a major professional sport continues to look the other way on this is both sad and infuriating to me.

-Speaking of concussions, the Harrison-McCoy hit continues to draw attention: Last Thursday, Steelers linebacker James Harrison hit Browns QB Colt McCoy helmet-to-helmet, a hit that even his own coach acknowledges was ‘illegal’. Harrison was suspended for a game, and while I think that was a TAD harsh – McCoy had tucked the ball to run, only to quickly pass it as Harrison approached him – the fact is that Harrison chose to lead with his helmet and aim for the head area, and he has to be accountable for that. I’m much more disturbed by what I’m hearing out of Cleveland, where GM Mike Holmgren has admitted that no concussion tests were ever administered to McCoy on the sideline. McCoy was permitted to re-enter the game, threw a costly interception, then, reportedly didn’t even know what happened after the game.

 Holmgren claims that the medical personnel didn’t realize the severity of the hit – fine, then I’ll blame the coaches, particularly head coach Pat Shurmur, who most certainly DID see the ferocity of the hit and the fact that McCoy appeared to be momentarily unconscious. The fact that Shurmur saw all of that and allowed McCoy to re-enter so quickly is shameful and frankly, cowardly – the game meant more to him than the health of his player. Let’s hope this incident spurs the league to adopt more rigorous policies, and that McCoy suffers no long-term effects of the hit.

(As an aside, I know some are tired of hearing me complain about concussions and headshots. I admit to bringing this issue up often, but I refuse to back off as long as preventable injuries keep occurring and as long as there exists a macho culture that insists on minimizing these potentially devastating injuries. I LOVE football and hockey, I want to watch as often as I can, and I admit there will always be risk – but just as NASCAR has drastically reduced risk through research, better car construction, and better safety devices, so too can ‘stick-and-ball’ sports get past their macho cultures and make sports safer for all contestants.)

-Finally, the NBA makes a move foolish enough to be granted space in my column: Longtime readers know I’m no fan of the NBA, and I thought the recent lockout was a prime example of how out of touch billionaire owners and millionaire players can be from their fans. However, once the lockout ended, even I thought the abbreviated free-agency/trading season would be interesting to watch, to see which teams figured out the new contract first. I should also state that of all NBA teams, I dislike the Lakers above all, so my upcoming defense of them cannot be construed as team bias.

The NBA owns the New Orleans Hornets right now, as they search for a new owner – much like the NHL presently owns the Phoenix Coyotes and MLB owned the Montreal Expos for a time (remember the Expos, we’ll come back to them). New Orleans has the best point guard in the league, Chris Paul, a singular talent who would make any contender better.  Paul is a free agent after this season and had told the Hornets he would not re-sign, a reasonable move given their messy ownership situation and general lack of talent. GM Dell Demps then did what any competent GM would do – he started floating Paul around in trade offers. The Lakers arranged a trade for Paul that involved the Knicks as well and resulted in a very good return to the Hornets – two very good players, two other players with upside, and a #1 draft pick. For a rebuilding team like the Hornets, such a trade was just the jumpstart they needed – except that the league VETOED THE DEAL. I’m a big believer in the idea that if two (or more)  teams agree to a trade, barring OBVIOUS collusion (like, say, dumping babe Ruth for $100,000) that the trade should never be blocked. After all, how many seemingly ‘lopsided’ deals looked a lot differently with the benefit of hindsight?

More importantly, however, the league’s ownership of the Hornets put them in a potentially compromising position – and instead of either forcing Demps to keep Paul at all costs, or keeping clear of the situation and allowing Demps carte blanche to make whatever moves he felt were in the best interest of the franchise, the league did the worst possible thing by allowing the player to be shopped, but then quashed the deal. Would they have vetoed this deal if it was another team trading their best player? Of course not – yet ANOTHER reason this is such a farce. In all my years of watching sports I’ve never seen a pro league make such an idiotic move, and this from a league that has traditionally been very PR-savvy. Commissioner David Stern, between your arrogant handling of the lockout and your ham-handed bungling of this trade, it’s retire-time, before you further embarrass yourself and the NBA.

Next week, we’ll look at what some local sports teams are hoping Santa will bring them.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

The Bison wrestling team has enjoyed tremendous success over the past decade and particularly over the last six seasons, but 2011-12 unquestionably shapes up as a rebuilding year. However, there is some returning talent – Clearfield returns two district champs in Christian Stone and Nolan Barger, and Dylan Graham also had a strong 2010-11 campaign.

The rest of the lineup is extremely inexperienced, and there will be growing pains as the squad grinds through a very difficult schedule. Please watch the video podcast above to hear head coach Jeff Aveni’s thoughts on the upcoming campaign.

Clearfield opens their season this weekend in Williamsport at the Top Hat tournament, and their first dual meet is Tuesday, Dec. 13^th at D-9 favorite Dubois. You can hear that match and all Clearfield regular-season dual meets on 93.1FM WQYX.

Projected starting lineup (* denotes returning letterwinner):

106 – Noah Cline (FR)

113 – Jake Lancaster (FR)

120 – Frankie Aveni (SR)*

126 – Christian Stone (JR)*

132- Dylan Graham (JR)*

138 – Wyatt Stucke (SO)

145 – Nolan Barger (JR)*

152 – Cody Mayhew (JR)

160 – Cody Hepfer (SR)*

170 – Garrett Timko (SR)

182 – Devon Sinclair (SO)

195 – Delson Wisor (SO)

220 – Shane Billings (JR)

285 – Jordan Lancaster (SR)*

2011-12 Varsity Schedule:

It’s time for the annual ‘thanks’ column – for the past few years, I review some things in the sports world that I’m thankful for, and then spend some time going ‘off the field’ with some real-world thanks. In some ways this year’s column is going to look a lot like last year’s (hard to believe that column is a year old already – how time flies!), so let’s get right to it.

-A year ago I wrote about Sidney Crosby, here’s an excerpt from that column: “We’ll talk a lot more hockey as the season progresses, but after reading this article and watching just how dominant he has been for much of this season (and most of his career), I’m thankful to be able to watch Sidney Crosby ply his craft in Pittsburgh…He also is not afraid to go to the front of the net and take the hits to get goals. With so many cases throughout sports of failed potential, seemingly uncaring stars, and ‘contract year’ players, it’s so refreshing to see a world-class athlete play so hard every time.”

Little did I realize when I wrote those words that just over a month later Crosby would take two hard hits…and be gone for almost 11 months. Monday night he returned to the Penguin lineup to much fanfare and national attention, and there’s a great story to tell there about properly managing a concussion, not rushing back and risking a debilitating recurrence…but that’s another story for another day. I’m just thankful that a transcendent talent like Crosby gets another chance to use his gifts and entertain hockey fans around the world, and more importantly that he has a great chance to live his life symptom-free and in good health.

-I mention often that sports are ‘the toy department’ of life, that it’s important to keep them in perspective – but this past year I’ve been very thankful to have that ‘toy department’. I’ll get into some of the reasons below, but suffice it to say that my family has been through quite a bit this year, and sports definitely helped with some of the healing/grieving we went through. Whether it was taking my mom to see Game Seven of the Pens’ playoff series last April, or recording Game 7 of the 1960 World Series for my grandfather to watch – a game he heard on the radio live, but had never seen in 50 years – events like that served as a very healthy break from heartache, and I’m very thankful to have had those moments, and feel very fortunate to have had access to both events.

-On a similar note, sports fans have to realize what a golden age we live in when it comes to being a fan of ANY sport. You name a sport that you like, and chances are that you can get access to it, either through the 600+ channels available via satellite, or via the internet. I grew up in a house without cable or satellite, the only channel available was PBS, and getting to someone’s house to actually watch a baseball game was a rare treat – and watching a hockey game on TV was so rare, I never actually did it until I was 17. This year, if I so chose I could have watched all 162 Pirate games either on TV or on the computer, and all 82 Penguin games as well – this was unheard of as recently as 2006! College football, hoops, dirt racing, even soccer and lacrosse are available much more than they were a few years ago. Enjoy your sport of choice in moderation, of course, but DO enjoy it – our access is unparalleled in history.

-I had some pretty harsh words for my alma mater two weeks ago, and while I meant them, wouldn’t take them back, and think that a lot of evil was allowed to transpire while able-bodied people stood by and either did nothing or didn’t do enough, I’m thankful that the university has responded and responded forcefully – by terminating employees, launching an investigation (headed by an independent party, a former director of the FBI), and by at least TRYING to be more transparent about the process. Those actions were necessary and now are done – it is time to let the investigation and the legal processes play out, and to think about the victims and innocent parties involved here (the current players, for example, were caught up in a situation totally out of their control). As disturbed as I am that it took this long for all of this to come to light, I’m thankful that it did before more children were put in harm’s way.  I’m thankful that both Penn State and recent opponents Ohio State and Nebraska have responded with such class on and off the field, and I think the healing process can now begin for all involved.

-Now for the ‘off the field’ section – as I mentioned above, it was a rough year for my family, particularly this spring. We lost my grandmother Tish Ogden in March, and while I acknowledge that she was almost 80 and had lived a full life, it was still hard for us to watch the last few weeks of her life. A couple of years ago I mentioned how my grandfather Carl was my inspiration in so many ways…well, Tish, or ‘Sweet’ as we called her, was often the glue that held our family together. She always comported herself with such grace and dignity that it was impossible to not trust and respect her – and I often went to her for advice on important issues.

We barely had time to recover from that loss when my sister Becky suddenly became ill in early April. Now, my sister had been battling illness all her life – she was born with Cystic Fibrosis, a genetic disease that destroys lung tissue. Missing 40-50 school days a year was par for the course for her, and she very nearly died when she was 22 – but a double-lung transplant in 1999 saved her life and gave her another 12 years of relative health. Unfortunately, transplants = rejection = anti-rejection meds=suppressed immune system, and so even a common cold was a very real threat to Becky’s life. This year, Becky caught what seemed like a cold, but was later determined to be the swine flu, in the first week of April. When she suddenly felt much worse she was taken to the Clearfield ER, shipped to Pittsburgh – and was gone 40 hours later. They say you often don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone – my sister was feisty and marched to her own tune, and we had many a disagreement growing up – but she was as strong-willed, funny, and cheerful as anyone I’ve ever met, and I miss her dearly.

Becky’s 35th birthday is Thanksgiving Day this year – it will be hard, with two empty seats at the table, but we will enjoy our turkey and be thankful for the time we had with her, thankful that she didn’t suffer at the end, and thankful that her work with the CF Foundation and Make-A-Wish helped raise awareness and give so many other kids a chance to fight, and defeat, this horrible disease. Mostly I’m thankful that her lifelong fight is over and she can finally rest. Happy Birthday Beck – I miss you.

There are a lot of great causes in this country, but if you have money to spare and are looking for a good place to donate, may I recommend the Western PA Chapter of the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. They are close to really getting the upper hand on CF – Becky’s fight is over, but there are about 30,000 other people, mostly kids, struggling with this disease. My family and I are thankful, now and forever, for any help you can give to those kids and their families.

This column is off next week, but will return the week of December 5^th.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.

At last, we get to our midseason NFL review. We’ll review my preseason picks, look at the top surprises and disappointments thus far, and take a quick stab at figuring out who will make the playoffs. Let’s start in the NFC.

NFC West

Biggest surprise: San Francisco (record 8-1; my prediction: 6-10). The 49ers are the surprise of the entire league, and with a 5-game lead in the division and five games left against the rest of that motley crew, the only question left is will the ‘9ers stumble a bit and lose a top-2 seed? Rookie coach Jim Harbaugh is a shoo-in for coach of the Year unless this team collapses – and with their schedule, that seems almost impossible. Do you realize that this team is an OT loss from 9-0, and they have beaten some GOOD teams…amazing.

Biggest Disappointment: Plenty of candidates, but I’m going with the Rams (2-7; I predicted 9-7). The dreaded sophomore slump appears to have hit QB Sam Bradford – he was ineffective and injured during the first half of the season, but should improve over the last seven games. The offense is ATROICOUS, scoring more than 13 points only once thus far.

Playoffs: Only San Francisco, but I think they will breeze to the #2 seed with a record of 12-4 or 13-3. I doubt any other team will get to .500.

NFC South

Biggest surprise: Cam Newton. The Panthers are as almost as bad as I expected, but Newton has been sensational for a rookie – his stats have come back to earth of late, but he’s still exceeded all expectations and unless he regresses substantially next year, it appears Carolina has a true franchise QB to build around.

Biggest disappointment: Tampa Bay. I knew they would regress somewhat, but they are getting CRUSHED over the past month, and have been outscored by 77 points. They have some winnable games, but they also have Green Bay this week – I don’t see them winning out, which is what I think it will take to make the playoffs.

Playoffs: New Orleans is obviously in the driver’s seat at 7-3, but they have some tough games left and I would not be surprised to see them  go 11-5 – which will keep them out of a bye week, and likely have them going to Green Bay in the second round. Atlanta has a shot, but at 5-4 they need to finish no worse than 4-2 to have a chance – their second game against the Saints on 12/26 still might decide the division.

NFC North

Biggest surprise: Chicago Bears (6-3; my prediction: 8-8). I expected the Lions to improve, but I figured the Bears were on the way down, and after a 2-3 start it sure looked like they were in trouble. However, this team is on a serious roll, having won four straight in very impressive fashion. Suddenly Jay Cutler isn’t getting sacked much, the defense is forcing tons of turnovers, and the Bears have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Their schedule is a lot easier from here on in – a 4-week tour of the mediocre AFC West, Seattle, and Minnesota are all winnable games – only Green Bay figures to be a sure loss, and the Pack may be in ‘rest’ mode by Week 16.

Biggest disappointment: Donovan McNabb. Say what you want about Andy Reid, but the man knows QB talent. He knew EXACTLY when to get rid of McNabb, and it appears that the former All-Pro is just about done. His starting stint in Minnesota was painful to watch – it appears that his skills left him very quickly, and he will be out of the league by next year.

Playoffs: Green Bay is obviously a shoo-in and likely will get the #1 seed overall – the only regular-season drama left for them is to see who finally beats them (my money is on Detroit on Thanksgiving Day – you have to pressure Rodgers to beat him, and Detroit can pressure anyone). Chicago and Detroit might well be the two wild-card teams, although the Lions have a tougher path with two games left against the Packers. Green Bay plays both teams the last two weeks of the season, and those games will almost certainly have huge playoff implications.

NFC East

Biggest surprise: New York Giants (6-3; my prediction was 7-9). Time to take back all I said in the preseason about Eli Manning – the man has played brilliantly thus far, and is on pace for almost 5,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. However, recall that I warned about this team’s late-season schedule and their tendency to collapse under Coughlin – after Philly this week they play @NO, GB, @DAL, WASH, @NYJ, DAL. The only ‘gimme’ game there is Washington…if they lose to Philly this week, you could still be looking at an 8-8 or even 7-9 season for the Giants.

Biggest disappointment: Philadelphia Eagles (3-6; my prediction was 12-4). Where to begin? The defense has been porous, DeSean Jackson has become a sideshow, the defensive front seven has been poor (particularly the linebackers), and head coach Andy Reid has done a poor job outside of his typical bye-week brilliance. The loss last week to Arizona was likely the dagger for this team’s playoff chances, but if that game wasn’t must-win this week’s tilt against the Giants certainly is. I expect some rebound here, but by and large the damage is done, and I don’t see the Eagles getting past eight wins, much less making the playoffs. The lesson, as usual: QB is important, but so is line play – on BOTH sides of the ball.

Playoffs: Wow, tough call here. It’s really going to come down to the head-to-head meetings between the Giants and Cowboys in weeks 14 and 17 – I think 10-6 definitely wins the division, and 9-7 might even be enough. Dallas has the schedule advantage and their underlying stats are better – I’m going to say that Dallas makes it in, but they will be the 4th seed and have a tough road in the playoffs.

AFC West

Biggest surprise: Um, pass? Seriously, I don’t think there’s been a pleasant surprise out of the whole division this season. Oakland might have to suffice since they are 5-4 and lead the other three teams by one game…but all four teams have allowed more points than they’ve scored, all are 2-2 in the division so far, and all appear to be fundamentally flawed teams.

Biggest disappointment: San Diego (4-5; I predicted 11-5). Perhaps it’s time to acknowledge that being a good coach DOES matter, and conversely when a team has a bad coach, the evidence is eventually inescapable. I believe the Chargers are at that point….Norv Turner’s career record is 103-110. His playoff record is 4-4, and he’s won more than one playoff game in a season exactly once – and that was his first season in San Diego. His teams have perennially underachieved in one way or another – the 2010 Chargers led the league on offense and defense, yet missed the playoffs; his best-ever team, the 2009 Chargers, went 13-3 but lost their only playoff game…and there are plenty more examples. The NFL is a bottom-line business, and the bottom line is that Turner has NEVER maximized the talent he’s been given to coach.

Playoffs: This is pretty hard, but like any hard multiple-choice question, let’s eliminate the most unlikely candidates…Kansas City was already struggling, mainly due to massive injury problems, and now their QB is gone for the year, and Tyler Palko will take his place. Now, it’s entirely possible that Palko is an improvement over Cassel, but either way this team wasn’t going anywhere. In Denver, the euphoria of Tebowmania will eventually give way to the stark reality – you cannot run 90% of the time in the NFL and beat good teams. I hate to beat up on Tebow, he seems like a great guy and I’m actually rooting for him…but make him a running back already and get it over with. He is simply NOT an NFL-caliber QB, and Denver’s defense is nowhere near good enough to win consistently.

That leaves us with the Chargers and Raiders – the Raiders are a game up and are 1-0 against San Diego. Both have three home and four road games remaining, and I judge their remaining schedules to be about even. Oakland overpaid for QB Carson Palmer, but maybe they did it because they saw an opening to win the division right now. San Diego has more talent, and maybe they will get off the canvas one more time…but I’m picking the Raiders to squeak into the playoffs as the #4 seed at 9-7.

AFC South

Biggest surprise: Most would say Houston, but I saw them coming…so I’ll say Tennessee. I moved the Titans up when I heard that Manning underwent neck surgery, figuring they were likely to be the #2 team in the division, but they have been far more competitive than I expected. QB Matt Hasselbeck has performed well above my expectations, and while the running game has been a disappointment the defense has by and large played well (excepting their beatings from Pittsburgh and Houston). At 5-4 and with several tough games ahead, they aren’t going to make the playoffs, but they are a tough spoiler team for the Falcons and Saints down the stretch.

Biggest disappointment: Indianapolis in a landslide (0-10; I predicted about 7-9 after news of Manning’s surgery). Well, now we know just how valuable Peyton Manning really was to the Colts – and also how devoid of talent the team really is without him to single-handedly win games. What a disaster on both sides of the ball! Aside from a 3-point loss to Pittsburgh and a 4-point loss to the Chiefs, they have been utterly uncompetitive all season – and with the Pats, Ravens, and Texans still on the schedule, they are certain to do no better than 2-14. They play Carolina after this week’s bye, and if they lose that game there’s a very good chance that they will go 0-16. How the mighty have fallen.

Playoffs: Sunday afternoon I would have said Houston without thinking twice, and would even have picked them to get the #2 seed. The loss of QB Matt Schaub makes predictions all but impossible – if Matt Leinart struggles as bad as he did with Arizona, this team might end up 10-6 or even 9-7. However, the division is weak, the schedule is easy, and I think the Texans will still win the division fairly easily….but their likelihood of earning a bye took a significant hit with the loss of Schaub. Tennessee will compete but will finish around .500 and not threaten for a playoff slot.

AFC East

Biggest surprise: Despite their recent swoon, I have to choose the Buffalo Bills. I had them pegged as the worst team in football, a team utterly devoid of interesting players – of course, they then started out 5-2, beating some good teams along the way. It appears that reality is starting to set in for the Bills, as they’ve been destroyed the past two weeks, but the schedule lightens considerably down the stretch and another three or four wins seems perfectly reasonable – and if they can upset the Jets or Pats, they are still a dark horse contender.  Either way, they’ve proven far more interesting than I expected.

Biggest disappointment: Most would say the Jets, and I wouldn’t argue much – but I’m going with the Patriots (6-3; I predicted 12-4). However, while they’ve disappointed thus far due to their porous defense and the beatings the Giants and Steelers laid on them, they still will walk away with the division – they have seven games remaining, and not one of those teams has a winning record except the Bills. My concern is that this team is starting to look a lot like the 2009-2010 Colts – no defense, poor running game, only a great QB separating them from a collapse. You cannot win championships without a total team effort, and the Patriots’ defense simply isn’t up to the task at this point.

Playoffs: As mentioned, I expect the Pats to cruise to a division title – they have the easy schedule, they lead the Jets by a game, plus they swept New York so they have the tiebreaker if it came to that. The Jets also have a fairly easy schedule, they have a great chance to win their next four games and finish 11-5 or 10-6…either way, they should grab the last playoff slot.

AFC North

Biggest surprise: Cincinnati Bengals (6-3; I predicted 4-12). Andy Dalton has been VERY good as a rookie – he has shown poise and leadership well beyond his years, and AJ Green has been as good as advertised at wide receiver. However, the schedule gets decidedly rougher now – they still have two games against the Ravens, another against the Steelers, and a game against the Texans. The other three games are very winnable, so 9-7 is a legitimate possibility for the Bengals – and if they manage to beat the Ravens this week, then they are in the drivers’ seat for a wild-card berth – but their best defender, corner Leon Hall, was lost for the season against Pittsburgh and I expect that this team will regress from here on. Even if they only win a couple more games, this team exceeded all expectations.

Biggest disappointment: Some would say the Ravens, and their inconsistency is certainly a concern – but I’m taking the Cleveland Browns (3-6; I predicted 7-9 but noted how rough their finishing schedule was – I expected them to be no worse than 5-4 at this point).  Their defense hasn’t played badly, they’ve been in most games, but their offense has been terrible both rushing and passing. The worst news is that schedule – after playing the Jags at home this week, Cleveland is on the road four of the next five weeks, and they play the Ravens TWICE in that span , as well as Cincy and Pittsburgh. There’s no way they can escape this schedule with less than 10 losses, and if they cannot defeat Jacksonville this week they might not win another game (although they are a definite upset candidate against the Ravens or Steelers because they play good defense).

Playoffs: Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh will make it – both have relatively easy schedules down the stretch. Both have to play the 49ers, but Baltimore has the Bengals twice and what could be a tricky road trip to San Diego left, while the Steelers’ only other tough opponent is Cincy at home. Baltimore had the advantage by beating the Steelers twice, but good teams beat the teams they are supposed to beat as well – and the Ravens have lost to the Jags, Seahawks, and Titans, showing an alarming lack of focus in the process. Last week’s loss to Seattle may well cost them the division, and at the very least it makes this week’s game between Cincy and Baltimore almost a must-win for both squads. I think Baltimore will win, but I think they will stub their toe and lose two more times – while I think Pittsburgh’s bye week comes at the best possible time, and they  will only lose one game the rest of the year. I think the Steelers will still win the division and get a first-round bye…possibly even the top seed overall, but I think it will come down to the last week, and I think the Ravens and Steelers will meet again in January.

Predicted playoff seeds (in order)

NFC: Green Bay (bye), San Francisco (bye), New Orleans, Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta

AFC: Pittsburgh (bye), New England(bye), Houston, Oakland, Baltimore, NY Jets

Next week, we’ll have the annual Thanksgiving post. What are YOU thankful for this year? Email me and if I get enough response, I’ll include some excerpts in the column.

Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.