Analyst predicts 1 billion iOS devices sold by 2015

Cupertino, CA, United States (4E) – Coming off of strong sales of the iPhone 5 – 2 million since it was available for pre-order – Asymco analyst Horace Dediu forecasts that the appropriate number for Apple is 1 billion. Dediu is predicting that in three years time, Apple will have sold 1 billion iOS devices.

“During the iPhone 5 launch event, Apple announced 435 million iTunes accounts (with credit card numbers) with one click shopping,” Dediu started his research with this statement.

Dediu is strongly backing his claim with the 435 million iTunes accounts that have made purchases. He believes that number will grow exponentially because iTunes averages 12 million new accounts every month. He correlates the sales of iOS devices with the number of iTunes accounts opened.

His conclusion is simple – the more iTunes accounts opened, the more iDevices sold. With the rate of iTunes accounts registered, the purchase of iOS devices will reach a billion by 2015.

“Projecting the growth forward would imply one billion accounts in another two years. iPhone and iPad growth increasingly converges with iTunes (of which there are 400 million units sold), the same time frame could apply to iOS cumulative sales,” Dediu said.

Dediu isn’t entirely confident in his research because he knows there are a lot of ifs. If Apple releases a new iPhone and iPod early and late next year, it could be possible that the Cupertino-based company will fulfill Dediu’s prediction.

But there are a lot of factors involved, including competition from other smartphone manufacturers.

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